Here is a message from a friend not far from Jacksonville Beach FWIW: Storm central here in Jacksonville, at least as of tomorrow morning. We decided to stay put as the weather forecasts of a couple of days ago showed the eye being about 50 miles off the coast, and we are twenty miles from the coast. Now things are looking a lot closer and a lot more serious. We are near the St. John’s River, and all riverfront homes are under a mandatory evacuation order, which many are ignoring. The riverfront home a few doors down from us is likely OK, because they are on the same level we are, about 37’ above the river. The river will take many days to drain down the extra water, and there is an expected storm surge of 11’, with waves on top of that. I think only about 30% of the Jacksonville Beach residents had evacuated as of this morning, and at this point we are told to not go out, but to “hunker down in place”, wherever that may be. The bridges across the intercostal waterway will be closed as soon as sustained winds reach 40 MPH, which is expected to be about 6:00 AM tomorrow. Storm surge estimates show that the vast majority of the barrier island will have about 8’ of water from the 11’ storm surge hitting during the height of the hurricane, with winds from 60 to 100+ MPH. As soon as the bridges close they will not reopen until after the hurricane is gone. No emergency personnel or police will go over the bridge under those conditions. There are @ 22,000 residents of the beaches, and assuming a lot more decided to leave as the forecasts became harsher, I would not be surprised if there are 6 to 8,000 still in place. There is a strip down the middle of the island, which looks to be about 1/6 of the area, that will remain above the storm surge. The rest better have a second story as the majority will have 8’ of water, with a few only a foot or so. > > I had therapy for a shoulder injury this morning, and my therapist and her > roommate live on the beach, and had not made any preparations for the storm. > I do hope she is there for my next session on Monday. My bet is that if she > does ride it out in place she will never do it again. I have never been in a > hurricane after living most of my life in Florida, but am told by those who > have “ridden it out” it is the most frightening experience of their lives, > and one is one too many. > > We lost part of a tree earlier today, but I have not been out to look at it. > I expect to lose a tree or two in the wind, though I hope we do not, and that > they do not hit the house should they drop, or the motorhome or the cars. We > moved our cars out to the side yard where there are no overhanging limbs to > threaten them – assuming the 45 - 60 MPH estimates for our area are correct. > The motor home is our backup for when the power goes out in the neighborhood. > We are told to expect at least a few days without power here, and a week or > more in the beach areas. > > Our home is cement block and the walls will hold. The roof is new with > upgraded shingles. They might not all stay on, even so. If the power does go > out for an extended time we can take a good deal of our refrigerated items to > the motorhome (fridge turned on two days ago), and run a heavy duty line into > the kitchen to run the refrigerator, holding all the excess and the contents > of our renter’s apartment refrigerator. We will stay in the motorhome if > we need AC, or in the house if it stays cool enough. We cook with gas both > in the house and the motorhome, so that won’t be a problem. We have over 50 > gal of diesel in the tanks, so the generator should last about a week. > > Water could become a problem if the power is out for more than several days > (and the neighbors don’t have enough). Between the holding tank in the RV (@ > 60 gal), the hot water heater (100 gal), aerator (150-200 gals), and other > gallons on hand we should be fine through this. > > We will have food, bathrooms (even if the flush will be manual), cooking, > refrigeration and air conditioning. Unless a tree takes one of us out, > nothing to complain about.
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