----- Original Message ----- 
From: Alexander Kruppa <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

> I've been trying to figure out what the chance of finding a P-1 factor
> is, given a certain amount of trial factoring and a P-1 bound.
[...]
> This would mean that we'd find factors of only 2.6% of the 10 million
> exponents, even with a bound of 1M ! Thats pretty disappointing.

To throw some experimental data in with the theory:

I use p-1 with B1= 1e7 and B2 = 1e8 to try and factorize Generalized
Repunits.  The composites that I deal with range from say 75 to 150
digits so are much smaller than those Mersenne composites you are
working on while having a similar restriction on the form of factors.

The results: 8 successes in 1452 trials or 0.55%

Andy Steward

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