Ed wrote:

"It seems to me that in the real world, the gravitational effects of the Earth+Moon system should draw items in, gradually
changing their orbits from those passing near to ones which intersect."

Hello Ed,

Mabe, but the Solar System is a pretty "happening" place, and if it is an Earth crosser, you are requiring it to be in orbital resonance with Earth, or for Earth to be in the same place (or something like that), each time.

So, I'd say you're not thick-headed, but that if it misses Earth, it is more likely to go somewhere else and be subject to other things like the Sun for Example...

You can't really compare a chance orbit crossing with a stable orbit of an asteroid-not planet crossing with Jupiter.

Here, this is a fun question you could play around with (I don't need the answer):

If a comet makes a close pass to Earth once, will it eventually make closer and closer passes until we collide? Why?

Best wishes and Life
Doug
----- Original Message ----- From: "E.P. Grondine" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 11:23 AM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Mammoth Stew, just right


Hi Sterling, Larry, all -

I'm feeling a bit thick headed today, so I'm going to
argue for a lower Earth impact rate again.

It seems to me that another problem with all of these
crater models is their assumption that an impactor is
either going to hit or miss.  It seems to me that in
the real world, the gravitational effects of the
Earth+Moon system should draw items in, gradually
changing their orbits from those passing near to ones
which intersect.  This should mean multiple passes
before impact, many of them near the Earth, or in
other words, very near or onto the Moon.

good hunting all,
E.P. Grondine

PS - I think we all remember the unusual Canadian
meteorite laws, and the sorry situation which occurred
in recovering the Tagish Lake fall. This means an
adventurous time for anyone going after the mammoth
pepperer, though certainly nothing to produce as
exciting accounts as South America.





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