Hi all -
Take a real good look at the second paragraph of this abstract by Lindley N.
Johnson, who is HQ manager of NASA's NEO detection effort:
The NASA NEO Observation Program and the Impact Threat Uncertainty for Society
Lindley N. Johnson
NASA Headquarters SMD/PSD MS 3X63, 300 E Street, SW, Washington, DC, 20546, USA
lindley.john...@nasa.gov
Abstract. After ten years of Near Earth Object (NEO) search operations, NASA is
approaching its initial goal of finding at least 90% of the larger, 1 kilometer
and greater sized objects which could pose a collision hazard to Earth.
Although no near term (within 100 years) impact threats have yet been
identified, several with close approaches to Earth have been found, the most
troubling a 270 meter sized object now called “Apophis” whose orbit brings it
to an encounter with Earth every six to seven years. A particularly close
approach of Apophis in 2029 makes uncertain what its impact potential will be
on subsequent encounters.
Now Congress has directed NASA to extend the NEO search over the next decade
down to objects as small as 140 meters – a population over 100 times as
numerous as the 1 kilometer and larger objects. This will significantly
increase the number of hazardous objects found and, because of their smaller
size - which increases the difficulty of obtaining enough observations to
accurately predict their orbits, it will also increase the number of objects
for which the impact threat is uncertain. With the current observation assets,
it may be months to years before enough data is collected to hopefully rule
out, but potentially confirm an impact threat.
What will be the effects on society of living under this “impact cloud” –
knowing that a threat is indeed there but not knowing precisely the probability
of it actually occurring? This presentation will review the operations and
progress of the current NASA NEO Observation Program and reflect on what has
been learned to date about the hazardous population and the difficulty in
determining impact threats. It will then present what NASA’s plans are for
extending the search for smaller objects and collecting the data necessary to
accurately determine orbits and characterized the nature of potential threats.
Finally, it will pose what more could or should be done, both in the US and
internationally, to reduce the uncertainty in determination of future impact
threats and lessen the disturbance to society.
end abstract
If the impact rate in the immediate future is anything like its been for the
last 13,000 years, we're in deep kimchi, unless NASA starts to work on CAPS
seriously.
E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas
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