Hi Greg, I really suck at math, even so, I believe that would be 172 years from now, not 72, so you definitely won't be around. Greg
---------------------------------------- > From: stanleygr...@hotmail.com > To: meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com > Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2010 15:23:46 -0700 > Subject: [meteorite-list] Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could Hit Earth in > 2182 > > > Wow - that's only 72 years from now... Don't think I'll be around > > Greg S. > > > http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/07/28/massive-asteroid-hit-earth-warn-scientists/?test=faces > > > > Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2182 > > A large asteroid in space that has a remote chance of slamming into the Earth > would be most likely hit in 2182, if it crashed into our planet at all, a new > study suggests. > > The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has about a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually > hitting the Earth, but half of that risk corresponds to potential impacts in > the year 2182, said study co-author María Eugenia Sansaturio of the > Universidad de Valladolid in Spain. > > Sansaturio and her colleagues used mathematical models to determine the risk > of asteroid 1999 RQ36 impacting the Earth through the year 2200. They found > two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit Earth in 2182. > > The research is detailed in the science journal Icarus. > > The asteroid was discovered in 1999 and is about 1,837 feet (560 meters) > across. A space rock this size could cause widespread devastation at an > impact site in the remote chance that it hit Earth, according to a recent > report by the National Academy of Sciences. > > > Scientists have tracked asteroid 1999 RQ36's orbit through 290 optical > observations and 13 radar surveys, but there is still some uncertainty > because of the gentle push it receives from the so-called Yarkovsky effect, > researchers said. > > The Yarkovsky effect, named after the Russian engineer I.O. Yarkovsky who > proposed it around 1900, describes how an asteroid gains momentum from > thermal radiation that it emits from its night side. Over hundreds of years, > the effect's influence on an asteroid's orbit could be substantial. > > Sansaturio and her colleagues found that through 2060, the chances of Earth > impacts from 1999 RQ36 are remote, but the odds increase by a magnitude of > four by 2080 as the asteroid's orbit brings it closer to the Earth. > > The odds of impact then dip as the asteroid would move away, and rise in 2162 > and 2182, when it swings back near Earth, the researchers found. It's a > tricky orbital dance that makes it difficult to pin down the odds of impact, > they said. > > "The consequence of this complex dynamic is not just the likelihood of a > comparatively large impact, but also that a realistic deflection procedure > (path deviation) could only be made before the impact in 2080, and more > easily, before 2060," Sansaturio said in a statement. > > After 2080, she added, it would be more difficult to deflect the asteroid. > > "If this object had been discovered after 2080, the deflection would require > a technology that is not currently available," Sansaturio said. "Therefore, > this example suggests that impact monitoring, which up to date does not cover > more than 80 or 100 years, may need to encompass more than one century." > > By expanding the timeframe for potential impacts, researchers would > potentially identify the most threatening space rocks with enough time to > mount deflection campaigns that are both technologically and financially > feasible, Sansaturio said. > > ______________________________________________ > Visit the Archives at > http://www.meteoritecentral.com/mailing-list-archives.html > Meteorite-list mailing list > Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com > http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list > ______________________________________________ Visit the Archives at http://www.meteoritecentral.com/mailing-list-archives.html Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
