oops, forgot to change the subject line.
mea culpa
-Walter
----- Original Message -----
From: "Walter Branch" <waltbra...@bellsouth.net>
To: <meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Monday, March 07, 2011 11:46 PM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] ALH 84001
Hello New Collectors ( and everyone else too!),
I have been collecting meteorites since soon after NASA made the
announcement in August, 1996 of ALH 84001. Some on the list have been
collecting more than I, some less. I would like to share with those new to
the collecting field how I go about valuing a given meteorite. It is not
a perfect procedure, but it has served me well.
I come from a background in statistics. I am particularly fond of
multivariate analysis and used to be pretty good at it. ANOVA, MANOVA,
etc.
Whisper orthogonal vs. oblique rotation in my ear and I get shivers.
Brrrrr.
However, you get away from academia/scholarly pursuits for 20 years and
you get a little rusty :-)
Anyway...
In deciding whether or not to purchase a meteorite, I first decide what
the meteorite is worth TO ME. A valuation. When I value a meteorite, I
borrow heavily from the statistical procedures discriminant function
analysis and multiple regression analysis. In non-stat terms, you take a
set of variables (we will call them independent variables) and use them to
either predict or classify another variable (dependent variable). The
dependent variable is my final price-purchase/no purchase decision.
Asking price is a variable - one variable. Other variables include size,
characteristics, (slice vs. endcut, vs. whole specimen, etc.),
historical/cultural/scientific significance, perceived rarity (though this
variable is taking on less-and-less importance to me), what a piece has
sold for in the past, etc.
There are also some intangible variables such as perceived honesty and
importance of the seller and whether or not I know and like the seller.
Provenance also (but not much).
Now, I do not perform a formal statistical analysis on a piece. I do this
informally. I weight each variable then decide what a piece is worth to
me.
I arbitrarily set the valuation of ordinary chondrites and irons at
$1.00/gram, then mentally add and subtract according to the weight of each
variable. Lunar and martian meteorites (what I am most interested in) are
assigned an arbitrary value of $600.00/gram before I start adding and
subtracting.
The whole procedure takes seconds. Informally, in my head. It sounds a
bit cumbersome and tedious but it really isn't.
You new guys and gals have to decide what works for you.
Don't get emotionally caught up in a bidding war (on ebay) and don't be
afraid to ask the dealer or seller if they will accept a lower than asking
price. You should approach the seller with an idea of what the meteorite
is worth TO YOU before you make a bid or an offer to purchase.
Anyway, just thought I share.
Happy collecting,
-Walter Branch
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