To Eric Grannan: That idea, probability / x instead of interval * x,
is worth thinking about.

On Oct 31, 12:37 am, Eric Grannan <egran...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I wrote a perl script (hey, I don't know python...) to calculate from
> the xml file what seems to me like an obvious statistic showing how
> much work your deck is going to be. I think of this as the "expected
> cards per day" statistic, and It just adds up the reciprocal of each
> cards "current interval". By current interval I just mean the interval
> a card was given when it was last reviewed, e.g. a card that was
> initially viewed 90 days ago and is now due in 10 days still has an
> interval of 100.
>
> The idea is that it tells roughly how many cards you expect to see
> each day, smoothing out the randomness in the actual daily card
> counts. In fact, you could implement a probabalistic pseudo-Leitner
> scheme by picking cards randomly, so instead of giving a card an
> interval of 100 you have a 1/100 chance of seeing it every day.  For
> this scheme the statistic would actually tell you how many cards you'd
> expect to see each day.
>
> I find it fun to follow the evolution of the "expected cards"
> statistic, and it also helps monitor how fast to add cards so that
> things don't get away from you.
>
> For example the current output from my Japanese deck is:
>
> 6234   62.54   1.861
> <2      6      4.50
> <10     78   10.84
> <30    333 17.68
> <100    887   14.91
> <300    1595  9.25
> <1000   2625   4.76
> over     710    0.59
>
> this shows that the deck has 6,234 cards, the "expected cards per day"
> statistic is 62.54, and the average difficulty is 1.861.
>
> There are 6 cards with 2 or less days to review which contribute 4.50
> to the "expected cards" statistic, 78 cards with less than 10 days to
> review which contribute 10.84, etc....
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