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The Zurich Investment Group Newsletter
 
U.S. Market Update
 .Global Quantitative Strategy
Monday
March 25, 2002
.
Mark Zuckerman
Managing Director
Research
Zurich Investment Group

E-mail


Market Comment
The market appears to be working hard to do something but remains stuck in a range. The DJIA and Nasdaq both have good support and resistance levels within a few percentage points either way, and although the market may look volatile on an intra-day basis, the overall movement for the near term could continue to be basically flat for some time, in our opinion.
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-U.S. Market News
NEW YORK -- The Dow broke a five-week winning streak as investors braced for the first-quarter pre-announcement season, which kicks into full gear over the next couple of weeks.
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_Asia Market News

TOKYO- Fears over the government's reluctance to take additional anti-deflation steps dampened Tokyo's market sentiment, sending stock prices sharply lower Friday.
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_Europe Market News

LONDON - After more than a month, where all signs pointed to recovery, investor enthusiasm seems to be waning as markets struggle to break out of their current trading ranges.
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_Taiwan Market Update

1. Local consensus is for the TAIEX to range between 5,900 and 6,250 this week. Taiwan's economy is in a strong cyclical recovery phase. Taiwan's leading economic indicator (LEI) due out this Wednesday, forecast to continue rising. U.S. economic figures due out Tuesday, March 26 -- durable goods and consumer confidence. Thursday, March 28 -- final 4Q 2001 real GDP growth number out.

2. Taiwan domestic mutual funds average equity holdings 81.0% (up 0.54 percentage point); OTC funds average 87.0% (up 0.78 percentage point), as of March 22. No major change week-on-week.
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DOWJONES
10,427.67
-52.17
-0.50%

NASDAQ

1,851.39
-17.44
-0.93%

NEWZEALAND
2067.71
+7.73
+0.38%

TAIWAN
6178.08
+37.66
+0.61%

HONGKONG
10863.07
0.00
0.00%

FTSE100
5250.50
-2.80
-0.05%

NIKKEI225
11261.11
-83.97
-0.74%

AUSTRALIA
3377.40
-4.20
-0.12%

Equity Analysis

James Morgan
Senior Analyst
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The recovery is "different" in that it is front-loaded, the inventory drawdown exceptionally severe and it is more likely that consumption will slow rather than accelerate.
Specifically, top of the list is the "upside- down" behaviour of US consumer spending. Next comes the almost unprecedented severity of the global inventory run-down last year, when 9/11 caused an abrupt reduction of activity in many sectors on top of large cutbacks that had already been implemented. Also on this list of special factors is the way that the tech sector led the world economy down last year.

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Market Report

Monica Marais
Senior Analyst
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- Growth Stock: HOLD-rated SLR reports 2Q EPS at bottom of its range.
- Value Stock: Reiterating BUY on Ford and $22 target price.
- Value Stock: Increasing target price on BUY-rated HCP to $45.
- Value Stock: Raising target price on BUY-rated BR to $51.
- Utility Scope: Raising price target on BUY-rated PGN to $55 from $50.

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Equity Analysis

Joseph Wong
Senior Analyst
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Companies Included
CHKP Nokia's move would favorably impact CHKP's top line growth while supporting its high margins.
FNM Bi-partisan legislation was introduced late Wednesday that would repeal Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's exemption from SEC requirements.
FRE Bi-partisan legislation was introduced late Wednesday (March 20) that would repeal Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's exemption from SEC requirements.

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