Here's the scenario:
Incumbent Mayor running for re-election for the first time in a primary
against a well known, elected official who is charging that the
incumbent hasn't done enough about crime or neighborhood development,
and questioning the budget decisions over the past 4 years. Although
there are other candidates running, it is clear that the incumbent and
the challenger will come through the primary.
The primary has low turnout, in the 14 percents, with the challenger
coming in 2nd with 35 percent of the vote.
2005? No, sorry, 1997: Barbara Carlson vs. SSB. The general election
has SSB winning 55-45.
Now of course I'm sure many will point out differences between 1997 and
2005. I agree, it's not a perfect apples to apples comparison. The
point is that there isn't a whole lot clamering for change among
the "joe schmoe" voter out there. Contrary to what was stated below,
there was something at stake out on Tuesday and that was to send a
message that we aren't happy with the direction of the City and the
Mayor running the ship. Given the fact that there was a legitimate
challenger with a solid base of support from the typical interests who
have a stake in the outcome of the mayoral race who could only muster
35 percent of the vote speaks volumes about his chances 7 weeks from
now.
Dean E. Carlson
East harriet, Ward 10
----- Original Message -----
From: Greg Abbott <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Friday, September 16, 2005 9:53 am
Subject: Re: [Mpls] Primary Turnout
> It is a mistake to draw conclusions from this low turnout primary
> election.
>
> There was nothing at stake in this election. Both Rybak and
> McLaughlin were going to advance to the general, and supporters on
>
> both sides knew that. Given the low stakes, plenty of folks in
> both
> camps sat this one out, particularly given the rainy start to the
> day. This is also true of the most council races. Most wards did
>
> not have a primary or a hotly contested race. The only real drama
>
> was in 8, 10, and 13.
>
> The results tell me that chronic voters (people who vote in every
> election, rain or shine) have a slight preference for Rybak. But
> given that turnout in the general election will more than double,
> perhaps even triple, from the primary, drawing any conclusions
> from
> Tuesday's results is a fool's errand.
>
> As an example, take the 13th Ward. Betsy Hodges got over 50
> percent
> in this primary, which is amazing for a DFL-endorsed candidate in
> 13. Yet her total vote was only about 2700. When I ran and lost
> in
> 13 four years ago, I got 4724 votes in the general election. The
> vote totals for the winning candidate in the last three general
> elections ('93, '97, and '01) were approximately 6800, 7400, and
> 5700, respectively. Hodges needs to find another 3000-3500 votes
> to
> win, and in Ward 13 that's going to be a challenge for a DFL-
> endorsed
> candidate.
>
> So it's a mulligan for everyone. Tee it up, and take another
> swing
> in November.
>
> Greg Abbott
> Linden Hills
REMINDERS:
1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If
you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL
PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list.
2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait.
For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html
For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract
________________________________
Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn
E-Democracy
Post messages to: mailto:mpls@mnforum.org
Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
