On 29.07 09:59, Henk Uijterwaal wrote: > > I'd think that 30 days is too low. What we see (*) is that after 30 days, > only half of the assigned ASN have appeared on the Internet. Some 75% > of the assigned ASN appear on the net in the first 6 months after > assignment, 80-85% after a year. Anything not seen after a year (15-20%), > is unlikely to ever appear, these can be recovered (at least in theory). > > While this looks like a lot, it does not really solve any problem. Geoff's > numbers show that the pool will expire in 5 years. Our estimate is a > little bit longer, but not that much. 2010-2005 is 5 years, if the trend > that 20% never appears continues and all these ASN are revoked, this simply > means that the pool will expire in 6 years. 2010 or 2011 hardly makes a > difference.
Henk hits the nail on the head. And reclamation is not straightforward: The RIPE NCC has hit strong resistance to reclamation, most often with the argument that the ASes are used in inter-domain routing on the Internet but our BGP data collectors just do not see the paths concerned. It takes considerable effort to do reclamation properly whithout putting the future user of any reclaimed number space at risk! Also: I think we should all be very concerned about this. As with all such projections, Geoff's are valid only for an unchanged consumtion pattern. If I was running a network I would start to ask my vendors serious questions and start to prepare deployment scenarios. Daniel
