On 12-Feb-2007, at 12:03, Brandon Butterworth wrote:
I think you're presupposing that the concept of "channels" is
something that will persist.
For some time.
There's quite an industry with an interest in maintaining that. It
probably won't vanish until the current generations die.
It could be argued that channels are already simply a transport
mechanism for on-demand content, at least to the growing population
of users who choose to pay extra for PVR/TiVO functionality at home.
And, interestingly, the people pushing the PVR functionality at users
here are the satellite and cable providers; there's no third-party,
packaged solution for the non-technical user.
You might imagine that these PVR-pushing cablecos are expecting the
death of channel-oriented content, and are preparing for it by
seizing control of the set-top box. Having a general-purpose computer
installed in half of Canadian living rooms, pre-cabled with AV and
CATV, with an IP address and a 80GB hard disk, presenting an on-
demand-like interface that consumers are familiar with seems useful
if you're anticipating a head-to-head competition with the likes of
Apple.
[Perhaps my viewpoint is skewed because channel-delivered TV content
in Canada is horrible; it's almost as bad as American TV. I seem to
think that broadcast TV in the UK more tolerable, although I haven't
really seen it since I left the UK in the mid 90s so perhaps I'm just
deluded.]
Channel based and discrete delivery of content (radio vs records,
tv/cinema vs vhs/dvd) have coexisted for some time.
If one loses ground it's not a problem unless you take sides.
Cursory consideration of your examples above provide clues as to
which way the scale is tipping; radio has for a long time been a way
to promote record sales, and the video stores here are now half-full
with boxed sets of TV series on DVD.
It looks to me like people increasingly want their content on-demand,
and that there's a growing industry supplying that demand. While I
don't doubt you when you describe an industry whose bottom line will
benefit from the persistence of channel-based content delivery, I
don't think those companies are the only ones in the game.
Joe