I've seen the weekly profiles of traffic sourced from caches for the major global services (video, social media, search and general) for a specific metro area.
For all services, the weekly profile is a repetition of the daily profile, within +/- 20%. That is: the weekly profile is obtained from the daily profile within +/- 20% of the average daily profile height. Given this regularity, as suggested by Louie Lee, then it seems that growth projections are meaningful. That is, the weely profile data, seem to provide a sound empirical basis for link upgrades. Since I'm not an operator, my comments need to be sprinkled with a pinch of salt :) Cheers, Etienne On Sat, Aug 15, 2020 at 2:43 AM Louie Lee via NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> wrote: > Beyond a pure percentage, you might want to account for the time it takes > you stay below a certain threshold. If you want to target a certain link to > keep your 95th percentile peaks below 70%, then first get an understanding > of your traffic growth and try to project when you will reach that number. > You have to decide whether you care about the occasional peak, or the > consistent peak, or somewhere in between, like weekday vs weekends, etc. > Now you know how much lead time you will have. > > Then consider how long it will take you to upgrade that link. If it's a > matter of adding a couple of crossconnects, then you might just need a > week. If you have to ship and install optics, modules, a card, then add > another week. If you have to get a sales order signed by senior management, > add another week. If you have to put it through legal and finance, add a > month. (kidding) If you are doing your annual re-negotiation, well...good > luck. > > It's always good to ask your circuit vendors what the lead times are, then > double it and add 5. > > And sometimes, if you need a low latency connection, traffic utilization > levels might not even be something you look at. > > Louie > Peering Coordinator at a start-up ISP > > > On Fri, Aug 14, 2020 at 4:13 PM Radu-Adrian Feurdean < > na...@radu-adrian.feurdean.net> wrote: > >> On Wed, Aug 12, 2020, at 09:31, Hank Nussbacher wrote: >> > At what point do commercial ISPs upgrade links in their backbone as >> > well as peering and transit links that are congested? At 80% capacity? >> > 90%? 95%? >> >> Some reflections about link capacity: >> At 90% and over, you should panic. >> Between 80% and 90% you should be (very) scared. >> Between 70% and 80% you should be worried. >> Between 60% and 70% you should seriously consider speeding up the >> upgrades that you effectively started at 50%, and started planning since >> 40%. >> >> Of course, that differs from one ISP to another. Some only upgrade after >> several months with at least 4 hours a day, every day (or almost) at over >> 95%. Others deploy 10x expected capacity, and upgrade well before 40%. >> > -- Ing. Etienne-Victor Depasquale Assistant Lecturer Department of Communications & Computer Engineering Faculty of Information & Communication Technology University of Malta Web. https://www.um.edu.mt/profile/etiennedepasquale