On Mon, Apr 19, 2010 at 06:56:43AM +0200, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote: > On Mon, 19 Apr 2010, Franck Martin wrote: > > >Anybody has better projections? What's the plan? > > My guess is that end user access will be more and more NAT444:ed (CGN) > while at the same time end users will get more and more IPv6 access (of > all types), and over a period of time more and more of the p2p traffic > (VoIP, file transfers etc) will move to IPv6 because it'll stop working > over IPv4. When enough users have IPv6 access the server-based content > will be made reachable over v6 as well. > > The transition will take at least 5 years, I guess in 2015 we'll be > perhaps halfway there.
I suppose we will be here before 2015. We have at least one segment where IPv6 CPE is mandated by network access providers - that's cellular networks. So, adding "Verizon mandates IPv6 for LTE phones"[1] and "Verizon expects to commercially launch its LTE 4G network in up to 30 markets in 2010"[2] I can suggest that there will be significant increase of IPv6-enabled users in 2010-2011. May be this increase will be even significant enough to push content providers to dual-stack too... [1]: http://www.circleid.com/posts/20090609_verizon_mandates_ipv6_support_for_next_gen_cell_phones/ [2]: http://www.wirelessweek.com/News-Verizon-LTE-Data-Calls-081709.aspx