On Tue, Feb 1, 2011 at 6:11 PM, Geoff Huston <g...@apnic.net> wrote: > > On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote: > >> with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice >> graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2 >> >> and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? >> gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos. > > but of course. > > http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg > > This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the > predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy (whatever > that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur > in that particular month. > > The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across the > regions and each region will work from its local address pools and service > only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /8 > policy the applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions where > addresses are still available. Its not possible to quantify how (in)accurate > this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion > point (which is at this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than > not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain.
Geoff, Very nice work! In order to further enhance it, LACNIC exhaustion policy specifies /12 instead of /8, as specified in http://lacnic.net/en/politicas/manual11.html, so it will probably take a few more months to such a policy be in force. Rubens
