On Mon, Jun 6, 2011 at 2:36 PM, Owen DeLong <o...@delong.com> wrote: > On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote: ... >> IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough for >> that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only >> sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64). > > I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet > to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about > 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage > of the future network. > > Owen
Hm. With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people on the internet? I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue at that pace. Matt [0] http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm [1] [1] I am strongly suspicious of their data, so my estimate lops their number in half. If you believe their data, in seven doublings, we'll be at 256B in 15 years. I find that number to be equally preposterous.