----- Original Message ----- > From: "Scott Helms" <khe...@zcorum.com>
> Yep, that's likely what will happen over the long term anyhow. That's why > I asked about a new apartment building in your territory. You decision > would be either run additional fiber to support each apartment as an > end point, simply provide backhaul to some other provider, or put your own > actives somewhere nearby. In fact, there is *one* large multiunit in my city, and I don't believe that there is space for anymore; my CO location is *right across the street from that*. :-) If someone *does* want to put another in, they will have to pay for me to pull the new fiber to their lot; that's how we do it with other utilities. > > Doing things which are not quite cost effective *yet* is pretty much > > the *hallmark* of government, is it not? Hybrid car tax breaks, Solar > > PV install tax breaks... these things are all subsidies to the consumer > > cost of a technology, so as to increase its uptake and push it onto > > the consumer-cost S-curve; this is a government practice with at least a > > century long history. > > > > It's pretty much what I'm trying to accomplish here. And thanks for > > teasing that thought out of my head, so I can make sure it's in my > > internal sales pitch. :-) > > All of those items have some chance of mass deployment. Mass deployment of > Layer 1 connectivity in the US is much *much *less likely. For the about 19th time: *that isn't my goal*. My goal is "not limiting future technology developments of deployment". Homerun fiber merely happens to have "L1 access to providers" as a side benefit. > > > First, exactly how many and what Layer 2 technologies BESIDES > > > Ethernet > > > do you think you have a market for? > > > > GPON/DOCSIS/RFoG? That's one people are deploying today. > > That question was in reference to commercial accounts not service > providers. I'm glad you want to limit the question, but I don't. > > Perhaps. But the *current* potential customer base does not merit > > locking in a limited design in a 50-year plant build. > That's a business call, but like a lot of decisions you're making a ton of > assumptions as well. You're assuming for example that the costs of running > additional fibers won't go down significantly during that 50 year time > span. Sure I am. Do you really expect that we'll find an appreciably cheaper method than directional-bore-and-blow? More to the point, the "-blow" part of that, since I'll be over-provisioning the conduit. > You're assuming that the cost of DWDM gear won't go down > sufficiently that running new fiber is simply not needed to support the > new architecture. Which seems the opposite argument. > You're also assuming that Layer 1 will at some point > have a reason for customer adoption when the entire world is working > on Layer 3 methods of doing this. Perhaps. But Juan Moore-Thyme: The extra cost of the plant build is somewhere between delta and epsilon; it *barely* even merits the amount of time we've burned up talking about it. I *can* fake loop with a home-run build, the converse is -- so far as I can see -- not true; loop builds *require* powered active equipment in the field, and I have half a dozen reasons to *really not want that a lot*. > > > This is the key point. IF someone was able to put together a nationwide > > > or even regional offering to allow inexpensive Layer 1 connectivity > > > things would be different. > > > > How, Scott, would you expect that sort of thing might happen? > > > > By people taking the first step? > > > > Yeah; thought so. > > There are more "first steps" that are never followed up than people > actually starting a trend. There is a guy in my neighborhood that swears > we can all drive around in cars powered by recycled frying oil and he > built one to prove it works. I should point out that your idea is not new > nor are you the first to try to build something like this. Good, then there should be lots of examples, successful *by their terms* or not, at which I can look. > > My county doesn't have the same first-trencher advantage my city > > does... > > but it does have the advantage that *it is nearly 100% built out as > > well*; > > we are, I believe, the densest county *in the United States*; maybe > > Manhattan beats us. Maybe DC; maybe Suffolk County in Mass. > > > > So it's not at all impossible that we might be the first domino to fall; > > there are a lot of barrier island communities near me that would be > > similarly easy to fiber, since they're so one-dimensional. > > > > (Geographically; I'm sure their residents are quite nice. :-) > > Today there are networks based on this premise in every state I've cared to > check. There are a lot of premises in this conversation; exactly which part did you mean? > Here in Georgia the independent phone companies formed a seperate > organization called US Carrier (which was recently sold for much less than > they put into it). The muni's formed a partnering (initially) network > called MEAG that was later renamed to GA Public Web ( > http://www.gapublicweb.net/). When the two were first constructed in the > early 2000's they actually had a interconnects and could sell off each > other's network, but that fell apart over time. Another good reference; thanks. > > > However, that's not going to happen AND we already > > > have good cheap solutions to deal with that. Most commonly VPLS over GRE > > > or VPN whose only real cost beyond the basic home Internet connection, > > > is a ~$350 CPE that supports the protocol. > > > > You're paying $350 for VPN routers? > > > > Could I be one of your vendors? > > VPLS and good remote management is well worth $350. I was quite happy with SnapGear before they got bought, out (still am, actually), and they were about half that. > > > your IT staff to support? > > > > Accurate, but not germane. They're not my target market. > > Owen brought up that example. Sure, there are lots of target markets. But no specific target market (except perhaps L1 ISPs) is driving my decision. Cheers, -- jra -- Jay R. Ashworth Baylink j...@baylink.com Designer The Things I Think RFC 2100 Ashworth & Associates http://baylink.pitas.com 2000 Land Rover DII St Petersburg FL USA #natog +1 727 647 1274