On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 8:11 PM, Joe Greco <jgr...@ns.sol.net> wrote:
> > > Multicast _is_ useful for filling the millions of DVRs out there with > > > broadcast programs and for live events (eg. sports). A smart VOD = > > system > > > would have my DVR download the entire program from a local cache--and > > > then play it locally as with anything else I watch. Those caches = > > could > > > be populated by multicast as well, at least for popular content. The > > > long tail would still require some level of unicast distribution, but > > > that is _by definition_ a tiny fraction of total demand. > > > > One of us has a different dictionary than everyone else. > > > > Assume I have 10 million movies in my library, and 10 million active = > > users. Further assume there are 10 movies being watched by 100K users = > > each, and 9,999,990 movies which are being watched by 1 user each. > > > > Which has more total demand, the 10 popular movies or the long tail? > > > > This doesn't mean Netflix or Hulu or iTunes or whatever has the = > > aforementioned demand curve. But it does mean my "definition" & yours = > > do not match. > > > > Either way, I challenge you to prove the long tail on one of the serious > = > > streaming services is a "tiny fraction" of total demand. > > Think I have to agree with Patrick here, even if the facts were not to > support him at this time. > > The real question is: how will video evolve? > > Good question. I suspect it's going to look a lot like the evolution of audio: Pandora, Grooveshark, Spotify etc. All unicast. CDN. Live sports: how was the Olympics coverage handled? Unicast. CDN. Multicast is dead. Feel free to disagree. :-) Tim:>