On 4/23/13 7:44 PM, "Geoff Huston" <g...@apnic.net> wrote:
>On 24/04/2013, at 8:10 AM, Andrew Latham <lath...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> On Tue, Apr 23, 2013 at 5:41 PM, Valdis Kletnieks >> <valdis.kletni...@vt.edu> wrote: >>> I didn't see any mention of this Tony Hain paper: >>> >>> http://tndh.net/~tony/ietf/ARIN-runout-projection.pdf >>> >>> ARIN predicted to run out of IP space to allocate in August this year. >>> >>> Are you ready? >> > >The prediction of runout business is extremely hard. All of these >predictions are based on the basic premise that what happened yesterday >will most likely happen tomorrow. If I were any good at predicting things, I would use my powers for evil. Your model and Tony's differ largely on how many "yesterdays" are considered; and, Tony's new model weights yesterday more heavily than yesteryear, on the guess that recent history is more predictive than distant past history. Meanwhile. . . >actors. In the address world it was observed that less than 1% (its >closer to around 0.5%) individual allocations account for more than half >of the number of allocated addresses. This becomes a problem in the >predictive models, as the dominant factor in address consumption is now >the actions of some 20 or so very large entities. Fortunately, very large companies are slow to change. Also, John Curran said during discussion at PPML of extra-regional allocations: "At the current rate, this is the majority of allocations we're making." So, a different 0.5% than most people are probably thinking of. I believe he said this growth trend "Leads to a runout Q4-2013 or Q1-2014, with certainty." > >Following a single largish allocation in early 2012 we've seen the ARIN >address consumption rate increase somewhat, and the average rate of >address consumption is currently around 2M addresses per month. If this >rate of address consumption continues, the ARIN will reach its last /8 in >early 2014, and if this rate persists, then the registry will exhaust its >pool around the end of that year, or early 2015. Sorry, is this to say, "If this rate of consumption continues" or "If this rate of increase continues"? I believe the difference is that several organizations are rapidly progressing through ARIN slow start, using their space in significantly less than three months. > >However, personally I find it a little hard to place a high probability >on Tony's projected exhaustion date of August this year. I also have to >qualify that by noting that while I think that a runout of the remaining >40 M addresses within 4 months is improbable, its by no means impossible. >If we saw a re-run of the address consumption rates that ARIN experienced >in 2010, then it's not outside the bounds of plausibility that ARIN will >be handing out its last address later this year. It largely depends on whether the new organizations getting address space hit a growth ceiling (or plateau). If they do so soon, we return to the nearly linear Potaroo Projection. If they continue to grow (especially if they represent a new business model and others follow suit) then the Hain Hypothesis holds. Lee > > >thanks, > >Geoff > > > >