> On Jan 4, 2016, at 11:09 AM, Ca By <cb.li...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 3:26 AM, Neil Harris <n...@tonal.clara.co.uk> wrote: >> >>> On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote: >>> >>> Hi, >>> >>> according to Google's statistics >>> (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st December >>> 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. Just a >>> little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In December we also >>> celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 standardization - RFC 1883. >>> >>> I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% :-) >>> >>> Tomas >> Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is following a >> logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for neatness, I get: >> >> Jan 2016: 10% >> Jan 2017: 20% >> Jan 2018: 33% >> Jan 2019: 50% >> Jan 2020: 67% >> Jan 2021: 80% >> Jan 2022: 90% >> >> with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4 >> switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027. >> >> Neil > Just a reminder, that 10% is a global number. > > The number in the USA is 25% today in general, is 37% for mobile devices. > > Furthermore, forecasting is a dark art that frequently simply extends the > past onto the future. It does not account for purposeful engineering > design like the "world IPv6 launch" or iOS updates. > > For example, once Apple cleanses the app store of IPv4 apps in 2016 as they > have committed and pushes one of their ubiquitous iOS updates, you may see > substantial jumps over night in IPv6 eyeballs, possibly meaningful moving > that 37% number to over 50% in a few shorts weeks. > > This will squarely make it clear that IPv4 is minority legacy protocol for > all of mobile, and thusly the immediate future of the internet.
I for one welcome the iOS update that brings v6 APN native access to my phone, or at least v4v6 APN setting. I keep hearing rumors it is "coming soon". This could have a similar step function in the traffic and graphs.