From: <christopher.mor...@gmail.com> on behalf of Christopher Morrow <morrowc.li...@gmail.com> Date: Wednesday, December 20, 2017 at 6:07 PM To: Lee Howard <l...@asgard.org> Cc: Mike <mike-na...@tiedyenetworks.com>, nanog list <nanog@nanog.org> Subject: Re: Waste will kill ipv6 too
> > > On Wed, Dec 20, 2017 at 2:16 PM, Lee Howard <l...@asgard.org> wrote: >> >> I’ve tried several times to come up with a scenario that leads to >> depletion in less than 200 years, and I haven’t managed it. Can you do it? > > during some ARIN discussions that revolved around Transition Technologies and > allocations to large ISPs, there were more than a few folk batting around the > idea that they may need to allocate a /24 or a /20 even to a single provider. > > I believe DT has a /19 assigned to them currently? how many /19's are there in > the v6 space? (524288-ish) > That's only ~100x the current number of active ASN in the field. It's unclear > (to me) how many of those could/would justify a /19 equivalent, and how fast > the ASN field is growing over time. DT is one of the largest ISPs in the world, isn’t it? Can you devise a scenario in which there are 524,288 ISPs the size of DT? Or one where every currently active ASN, times 100X, needs/justifies a /19? > > 200 years seems optomistic, 20 years seems easy to imagine surpassing though. > What's the sweet spot? > 200 years seems pessimistic to me. Every scenario I run uses ridiculously profligate assumptions, and usually multiplies those by a few orders of magnitude. Even extrapolating from your math above, I don’t get less than 2222CE. Lee