David Conrad wrote:
Joe,
On Feb 19, 2008, at 4:28 AM, Joe Maimon wrote:
When IANA free pool exhaustion happens or even appears to be
imminent, one can expect push for allocation policies to be changed
drastically towards the miserly.
No.
You might see a push towards this, but it will take far longer to get
policies modified than there will be time left and there will be
increased 'competition' among the RIRs that will strongly discourage
this course of action (as someone who has proposed a policy that would
impose more restrictions on v4 allocations, I have already heard the
"if we modify our policies to be more conservative, then the folks in
other RIRs will get an advantage" several times).
Things might get different when the end is staring us in the face.
The RIR bureaucracy is a ponderous ship that turns very slowly and has
multiple captains who do not necessarily agree on the direction to
turn. IPv4 allocation policy revisions aren't going to save us.
RIR's have bylaws about emergency policies, dont they?
Its not about saving, its about prolonging the end and how long that
migh be expected to last.
Furthermore, I expect more credence will be lent to the reclaiming
efforts, and pre-RIR swamp space has lots of candidates.
What incentive to a holder of early allocations is there to return
address space voluntarily?
None, but the nice thing about being a registry is that reclaiming
things is as simple as allocating it to somebody else. Buyer beware and
all that.
And in the absence of any other method of obtaining ipv4, I would expect
RIR mebership to push for aggressive reclamation, with policy change to
make it worthwhile.
Class-E,
Efforts to redefine class E have stalled because there is simply no way
it can be used for anything other than private space.
Amazing that so much effort can go into ipv6 but nobody can spare a few
hours per product to remove a couple lines of code?
There are too
many implementations out there that will never be modified (e.g.,
Windows 98) on which you can't even configure class E space.
Faced with a choice of ipv6 and no ipv4 or ipv6 and class-e ipv4, which
would you choose? Not like windows98 (if there are any still around that
mean anything to anybody) has ipv6 either.
rfc3330 and similar reclamation might occur as well.
IANA recently reclaimed 14/8. I think that added 3 _weeks_ to the
expected runout date. That was likely the last "easily" reclaimable
block.
Reclamation efforts without policy change isnt profitable and would only
become so if miser mode is in effect.
The question is how ARIN will deal with the market after the IPv4
free pool exhausts.
I expect the value will skyrocket, whether on the black, grey or
white market.
Yep. And the question is: as an ISP or other address consuming
organization, what will you do when the cost of obtaining IPv4
addresses skyrockets?
Pass it on to the customer. Reclaim. Scavenge. Engineer more nats and
workarounds while accelerating ipv6. Get budget and manpower to actually
make changes. Drag the users kicking and screaming, cause thats what it
will take.
So far, as far as I can tell, the answer to that
question (in most cases) has been putting hands over ears and saying
"La la la" loudly. See
<http://www.networkworld.com/news/2008/020608-ipv4-address-depletion.html
>.
Things will likely be different in 2010
Regards,
-drc
