The economics of raw logs

The sale of unprocessed timber plays a controversial, but needed role in B.C.'s 
forestry sector

By Gordon Hamilton, Vancouver Sun
July 14, 2012
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/economics+logs/6934626/story.html



[cid:image001.jpg@01CD656C.644B4420]

Garry Reece (left), chief of Lax Kw'alaams First Nation, with Wayne Drury, who 
heads Coast Tsimshian Resources, a firm that exports 35 per cent of its 
allowable cut overseas, mostly to China.
Photograph by: Ian Smith, PNG, Vancouver Sun
If there is a way to build an economically viable sawmill in British Columbia's 
northwest, Wayne Drury, chief executive of Coast Tsimshian Resources, is 
determined to do it.
But if it were easy, others would have done it long ago, said Drury, who heads 
one of the largest and most successful companies in the northwest.
In the meantime, Coast Tsim-shian - owned by the Lax Kw'alaams First Nation of 
Port Simpson - relies on log exports, sending up to 35 per cent of its annual 
allowable cut overseas, mostly to China. A provincial order-in-council permits 
loggers from the central and north coast, where there are no manufacturing 
facilities, to export 35 per cent of the harvest.
"If we and others in the northwest did not have that 35 per cent, none of us 
would be in business. How many offers have we had to buy our wood?" he asks, 
then answers his own question: "Two years ago one [southern B.C.] sawmill was 
looking. They didn't buy."
Log exports have a long and contentious history in B.C. Popularly viewed as 
exporting jobs, they were first banned in 1897. In 1916, the export of surplus 
logs was allowed, a policy that is still in place today.
Coast Tsimshian relies on log exports as the foundation of a business the 
company is building one step at a time. It employs, or is responsible for the 
jobs of, 170 people, including the longshoremen who load logs on Asia-bound 
ships.
The first nation has an office in China and, during the inter-view, Drury 
mentioned that an executive is in that country nailing down details on 
potential lumber contracts.
Coast Tsimshian wants to build a mill that will make lumber from the low-grade 
pulp logs that populate much of the northwestern forests. But exports, Drury 
notes, provide the cash flow that keeps the company running, even when margins 
disappear.
On northern Vancouver Island, where logger Eric Dut-cyvich of Lemare Lake 
Logging cuts timber in the mixed hem-lock, balsam and cedar stands of the 
coastal rainforest, log exports also ensure his business is running and 
profitable, providing paycheques for 300 people at times when domestic demand 
is down.
A veteran of the coastal industry, Dutcyvich knows the logging business inside 
out. The reality of the different species and ages within the coastal forest, 
coupled with the economic reality of lumber demand fluctuating up and down, 
dictates that there will always be an equally varied mix of log markets, he 
said.
IMPERFECT SYSTEM
"I've been watching for years a lot of the drama around log exports play itself 
out," Dut-cyvich said from the Port McNeill headquarters of Lemare Lake 
Logging. "People who rely solely on log exports see it as a solution to 
every-thing. And people who feel as though their jobs are in jeopardy because 
of not enough log supply, they like to demonize [log export] policy as the 
reason for all their problems. But it's really not that simple."
"We don't log in a homogeneous forest. There are many different species. Last 
summer, for example, was some of the best pricing for small log hem-lock for 
pulp that we have seen for a long time, in probably a decade."
But cedar - non-exportable from Crown land - was off.
"Way off," he says. "Now it has come back. And it is the driver in a lot of 
decision-making about which stands are economic and which ones are not."
That mix of species, prices and markets has created a unique industry on the 
Coast, where loggers, log brokers, major licensees and sawmills jockey for the 
best prices and the best logs for their needs in behind-the-scenes 
negotiations. To play in the game, you've got to be big - with a large 
inventory of logs or a large capacity to make lumber - to negotiate the best 
deal. When discussions are congenial, it leads to contracts where the right 
wood goes to the right market, whether export or local, and everybody gets 
enough timber to make money. When they break down, it leads to bad blood, with 
log suppliers threatening to cut off log buyers and log buyers threatening what 
is termed "blockmail" - blocking a broker's bid to get an export permit.
"Although it's an imperfect system, it's a pretty good system because it's the 
right mix of global competitiveness mixed in with protection of a local 
sawmilling infrastructure," said Dutcyvich. "And when the export market goes 
down and the domestic market hopefully comes back, we need those mills. Without 
those mills, we would be at the mercy of log export. And that'd not be a very 
comfortable thing."
SURPLUS TEST APPLIED
The export market is driven by price. When the U.S. market was strong, logs 
exported south commanded twice the price that domestic mills could pay. Now, 
the Asian market is paying around 30 per cent more.
This is how the system works: Before they can receive a permit from the federal 
Timber Export Advisory Committee, exporters need to show that logs are surplus 
to the needs of domestic manufacturers, can-not be economically processed in 
the province, or that export will improve utilization and reduce waste.
There is a surplus test; the timber is advertised for sale. If no offers are 
received, an export permit is issued. Sawmills can block a permit by making an 
offer, but they are not obliged to purchase the wood, as markets can change by 
the time the TEAC process is completed. Further, an exporter pays a fee-in-lieu 
of manufacturing that varies from five to 15 per cent of the log value, 
depending on species and grade. The whole process is bureaucratic and 
time-consuming.
Some mills are outspoken in their opposition to exports. The Teal Jones Group 
of Surrey argued in a Jan. 21, 2010 letter to the government that log exports 
reduce demand for B.C. lumber in those same export markets. And when they can't 
get enough logs, sawmills run reduced shifts. Teal Jones operates a small log 
sawmill and said in the letter that exporters take premium lengths, leaving the 
domestic mills with uneconomic logs.
Ken Johnson, a log broker with Lions Gate Forest Products, said before he 
starts to fell any timber, he goes to the mills that he knows are blocking 
exports.
"I strike up a deal with them [using other logs] and that way they get the 
lengths they want and they are a lot happier than they would be blocking a 
bunch of timber that would be off-lengths to them."
Johnson said the system needs changes to become more efficient.
Right now, the wood has to be logged and in the water in a boom before a broker 
can apply for an export permit. That creates risk and uncertainty; risk that 
pests like the teredo worm could get into the logs or that some could sink. 
Further, there's uncertainty whether the permit will go through. That 
instability hampers business investment for both loggers and sawmillers.
The B.C. government is con-ducting a log export review.
ghamil...@vancouversun.com



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