The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
October 26-27, 2004
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***Is a new spirit of democracy reinvigorating the American populace?
***The right to vote. Plus: Cendant Corp (CD:NYSE) is the stock to
watch� and more investment updates to follow�
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Dear Friend,
Americans tend to make unenthusiastic use of their right to vote. Typically,
fewer than half of those entitled to take the trouble to go to the polls or mail in
their votes.
This year, things are going to be different. Take Ohio, the Heart of it All: That
state's governor, Bob Taft, just indicated that in four Ohio counties, "more
people have registered to vote than live in those counties and are of voting
age."
Election participation of 100-plus percent, of course, would be right on par
with those achieved by Eastern Bloc countries before the fall of the Berlin
Wall.
Is a new spirit of democracy reinvigorating the American populace? Or is
someone taking "Leona" Heinz Kerry's recent call to "vote frequently" just a
tad too literally?
I have my suspicions�
***The recent inflation of the euro bubble to US$1.29 is testing the pain
thresholds of the export-dependent European economies. German Chancellor
Gerhard Schr�der today described the euro's most recent gains as
"worrying." At the same time he called for EU budget rules to be relaxed even
further to give governments more leeway on spending.
The European Commission just reduced their 2005 growth expectations for
the Eurozone to 2%, down from an already skimpy 2.1% in 2004. Germany's
government yesterday lowered its 2005 outlook to just 1.7%, from an already
downwardly revised 1.8%.
EU growth will thus limp in behind US growth for the 12th year in 13.
For the third year in a row, Germany and France will again exceed EU deficit
limits that restrict new debt to 3% of GDP. For 2005, Germany is expected
to post a 3.4% budget deficit, after this year's 3.8% shortfall. France has
overspent by 3.6% for 2004 but swears it will come in at 2.9% next year -
thanks to a payment to the government by French power utilities in exchange
for taking on their pension liabilities. That payment amounts to 0.4% of French
GDP.
Now you see why Schr�der and Co. are eager to cut the euro back down to
size. Because if the relative price increase generated by the rising euro chokes
off the export industry, recessive domestic demand might just result in a
shifting of weight in the trade balance. The potential result: Twin Deficits Made
in EU.
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***Presidential Punting
Today's tradesports.com standings for the 2004 Presidential Election are:
PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004: 56.1/56.3 (yesterday's standing 58.0/58.5)
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004: 43.3/44.2 (yesterday's standing 41.7/41.8)
Earnings Announcements for Wednesday, October 27, 2004:
724 Solutions Inc., Active Power Inc., AirTran Holdings Inc., Akamai
Technologies Inc., Anthem Inc., Argosy Gaming Co., Ariba Inc., Ask Jeeves
Inc., Black & Decker Corp., Blockbuster, Boeing Co., Cabot Corp., Cox
Communications, Digimarc Corp., Duke Realty Corp., Fluor Corp., FLYi
Inc., Garmin Ltd, Harte-Hanks Inc., Hooper Holmes, i2 Technologies Inc.,
International Steel Group, Jones Apparel Group, Komag Inc., Leapfrog
Enterprises, Level 3 Communications, LSI Logic Corp., MetLife Inc.,
Moody's Corp., Newmont Mining Corp., Nextel Partners Inc., ON
Semiconductor, Paxar Corp., PEC Solutions Inc., Plug Power Inc., Procter
& Gamble Co., Rollins Inc., Sealed Air Corp., SonicWall Inc., Steel
Technologies Inc., Steris Corp., THQ Inc., Titan Corp., Ventas Inc., Visual
Networks Inc., Yankee Candle Co., and Zenith National Insurance Corp. are
some of the companies releasing earnings.
***Quote of the Day:
"Do you remember an old musical comedy song that said, 'Anything you
can do I can do better'? Who would have dreamed that someday a
grown man would be running for President of the United States on that
childish theme?"
--Thomas Sowell, October 26, 204
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "Two thirds of our indicators now point to a modest bullish movement to
add back 0.5% to the index tomorrow."
With a high of 12,867.51, the Hang Seng managed to come close to our
predicted upside, closing the day at 12,852.35, up 34.25 points (0.27%).
The indicators now point to a far more robust bullish trend, which could add
between 0.6% and 1% to tomorrow's performance.
*** "Our indicators hint at the possibility of a slight upward trend tomorrow,
capable of adding as much as 70 points over today's close."
At today's peak, the upside may have been only 30-odd points. The Nikkei
225 ended the day at 10,672.46, up 13.31 points (0.12%). But as in Hong
Kong, the indicators show strong bullish trends for tomorrow. Expect gains
above 0.6%.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
***Planes, Trains and Automobiles: Amid all the talk about oil prices,
terrorism and elections, it's been a very good year for the travel industry.
According to research by the Travel Industry Association of America due for
release Friday, this year is expected to be the best for travel since the
September 11 attacks crippled the industry three years ago. The group
projects a 7% sales spike to $592.6 billion.
It will also be the first time since 2000 that every sub-sector of the industry
reports a gain for the year. Heck, even the indescribably awful airline sector is
expected to announce a 5% rise in domestic passenger volume. International
passenger volume to and from the US is up 15% over last year. Hotel revenue
per available room climbed 7.5% from January through September this year.
This bodes well for companies like Cendant Corp (CD:NYSE), a stock in
my Taipan portfolio. Cendant recently acquired online travel operator Orbitz
for $1.25 billion - a deal that vaulted the company from fifth to second in
terms of biggest US travel operator. Only Expedia is now higher than
Cendant.
And with a whole host of travel-related companies under its wing, including
Avis, Budget, Ramada and Days Inn, the future looks bright for Cendant.
Last week it reported a 5% increase in quarterly revenues, with net income
jumping 19%. And fourth-quarter earnings are set to climb a further 14%,
thanks in no small part to the Orbitz acquisition. Its PEG ratio sits at 0.8,
meaning the stock is still actually undervalued. And over the last 12 months
Cendant has generated a remarkable $9.6 billion in free cash flow.
I remain bullish on the company's chances for continued solid growth.
Cheerio for today.
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
***Time-Sensitive Election Alert.
You must act immediately to prepare for the volatile market ahead.
Current economic, political and security factors are forming a turbulent market
climate that will bring masses of unprepared investors to their knees.
But a select few inventors who see it coming - and act accordingly - will
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J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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