Aloha,
I was a Brexit addict. Till the day before yesterday. I used to spell
the Guardian online and go thru all the vagaries of that great soap. But
no longer. I might merely scan the headline, and may be even not.
I 'know' what is going to happen (even though you never can know). The
Maybot is going to run the clock till March 27th, will probably not get
her 'deal' (the same old one) passed, and Britain will leave the EU
without an agreement. No problem for her since she will go down in
history as the PM who has wrecked the no longer United Kingdom, but will
have not split the Conservative party under her tenure. Which will end
soon thereafter anyway, and will see the Conservative party split all
the same.
Just as Labour will do, since Corbyn, who was doing a 'parcours sans
fautes' as long as the un-negotiations between UK and EU were going on,
but then cogently swerved out of the bend as the Maybot tired everyone
out, and for exactly the same reason: fear of displeasing the more
vociferous parts of his electorate, even though it's a minority, just as
they are among the Tories. Now Corbyn's dream of what Le Monde
Diplomatique termed 'a Brexit of the Left' lies in shambles, just as any
hope of gaining a majority if a snap election is called (according to
the latest surveys, Labour stands to lose 12 seats, and the Tories to
gain 4 - looks like the Maybot's histrionic inertia pays ...) And oh
yes, his party's gonna split all the same.
If ever a second referendum occurs - but it won't - my best guess is
that England & Wales would vote to remain, though with a lesser margin
than for Brexit in the first poll, and Scotland and N.Ireland will vote
remain in even larger number than first. But for now you'd better bank
on a second Scottish independence referendum, followed by then
resumption of 'the Troubles', or the reunification of Ireland if it
comes to the inevitable hard border.
So the chickens will have come to roost. What started, and remained, a
uniquely English issue, and within that a purely Tory quarrel, will now
leave all contenders f**** up as they deserve. And we in Europe will
soldier on towards our next showdown: the European Elections in May.
Interesting times indeed.
Cheers to all, have a nice wee dram!
p+2D!
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