1 The coup
President
Bush has ordered the CIA to pursue the "dirty tricks" route to getting rid of
Saddam, of which the most plausible is fomenting a coup within the dictator's
inner circle. But the last significant CIA-inspired coup attempt, in 1996, was a
bloody disaster. The plot was compromised from the start by Iraqi government
infiltrators and untold numbers of plotters and hapless suspects were executed.
Even the CIA director, George Tenet, reckons a coup has only a 15% chance of
success.
2 The Afghan model
Let Iraqi opposition groups do the fighting
with heavy US air support and a few thousand special forces troops on the
ground. This was the plan promoted by General Wayne Downing, Mr. Bush's
counter-terrorism adviser, but it has fallen out of favor in Washington due to
misgivings over the unity and military strength of the rebels. Mr. Downing
himself has since resigned.
3 The Gulf war option
Using up to 250,000 troops supported by
devastating air power and technology that is far more sophisticated and deadly
than Gulf war-era equipment. The attack would be mounted from Kuwait and Qatar,
but would also need access to Iraq's long land borders with Jordan or Saudi
Arabia. No one doubts that the Iraqi army would crumble in the face of the
onslaught, but such a large force would take months to amass and would make an
easy target for a chemical or biological weapon.
4 The surprise attack
This would use between 50,000 and 80,000
troops which could be moved into the region gradually and surreptitiously, under
guise of exercises and troop rotations. It would advance speedily towards
Baghdad, seizing cities in the south that would become bases for an internal
revolt. That revolt would theoretically trigger a nationwide army mutiny. But it
could still give Saddam time to unleash weapons of mass destruction in a last
desperate throw of the dice.
5 The inside-out attack
Strike at Baghdad and Iraq's other command
centers first to "decapitate" Saddam's forces and minimize the possibility of a
biological or chemical response against US forces or Israel. A high-risk
strategy that would expose US troops to fierce street fighting against Saddam's
best troops.
Bush Has Received Pentagon Options on Attacking Iraq.url
