October 10, 2002
Forward to The Past
After the Bosnian Vote
Results of the Bosnian general elections should be official by now,
though it was already obvious on Tuesday that ethnic parties triumphed
convincingly. Though agency reports over the past several days have made
a great deal of that outcome, as usual they refused to let facts get in
the way of a good story. Much was made of rather unimportant details,
while the truly significant developments were either ignored or
misrepresented. Well, what else is new?
Points of Departure
Over the past two years, ethnic parties were kept down by the Imperial
Viceroy, not the ballot box. Leaders of the ethnic Croat HDZ were banned
from holding public office, and a bank close to the party was raided and
forced to shut down. The Serb SDS had won the last election, but chose
to take a back seat in a coalition government with a leftist Democratic
Prosperity Party, after threats from Washington that the party would be
banned outright. Only the Muslim SDA, led from behind the scenes by
Alija Izetbegovic, was in outright opposition, but even that was
somewhat deceptive. The Social-democrats (SDP) could only rule with the
support of SDA�s splinter wing, Haris Silajdzic�s Party for Bosnia,
whose program differences with the SDA are nearly nonexistent. The SDP
thus found itself at the mercy of Izetbegovic�s dark horse, with
Silajdzic blocking all meaningful reform while blaming the SDP for
failing its voters.
Winners and Losers
So while the HDZ rebounded and the SDS increased its influence, the SDA
jumped back on the top of the Muslim political heap, while the
Social-democrats were soundly defeated. Another loser, after a fashion,
was Silajdzic. Though he will remain allied with the government, he was
unable to parlay his insider advantage into a senior partner position.
Once again, as before, he will be Izetbegovic�s lackey.
Yet most agency reports have focused on the HDZ and SDS victories,
neglecting this restoration of ancien regime among the Bosnian Muslims.
One explanation for this can be found in last week�s AP report, which
referred to the SDA as "centrist" and Silajdzic�s party as "moderate,"
even as it acknowledged both were dominated by Muslims. Since there are
no Muslim nationalists, by definition, they can�t have achieved a
surprising comeback.
Revolt at the Altars
The second October surprise was the unprecedented low turnout at the
polls, somewhere around 55 percent. On some visceral level, most
Bosnians refused to worship at the altar of democracy because they
understood the predatory nature of their rulers. Between incompetent or
evil politicians, and the Imperial viceroy who made the real choices,
they knew their vote would not have made a difference. Unfortunately,
they most likely abstained out of despair and resignation than out of
real protest. As it happens so often, the winners will interpret their
silence as approval, not acrimony, and the civic religion will endure.
Empire Wins Again
Despite the glum pronouncements of Imperial media, Viceroy Ashdown was
oddly upbeat about the election. He characterized the vote as a "cry for
help" from Bosnians tired of corrupt politicians, even as they elected
and restored some of the most corrupt kleptocrats ever. He then endorsed
the ludicrous notion that the SDA was not really nationalist, saying it
"had done the most to move to a center moderate ground."
"Let�s wait and see. I would judge these people on what they do in the
future. Justice and jobs will be the acid test for the future
government," quoted the AP. There is a saying in Bosnia that the wolf
may change his fur, but never his nature. Ignoring folk wisdom can be
perilous. But perhaps Ashdown isn�t really ignoring it at all?
Ashdown's plea to his subjects a month ago, to "give us a mandate for
reform," was assumed to be support for "reformers," but that really
depended on Ashdown's definition of the term. How about the "centrist"
SDA, or the "moderate" Party for Bosnia? If he and his masters actually
desired a nationalist victory, that would explain the odd pronoun usage
("us" and "we") in the September statement. With the nationalists in
office, Bosnians will now see Ashdown and the Empire as their saviors,
as opposed to a necessary evil.
Several things now begin to make more sense. There is a direct
correlation between ethnic quotas in public service and the power of
ethnic politics. Thanks to the quotas, the ethnic parties won the
election of 1990. Their power slipped when quotas were relaxed a few
years after the war. This spring, the quotas were imposed again, as part
of a constitutional reform aiming to protect the "rights" of all
Bosnians. It was one of the last acts by the departing Viceroy
Petritsch, seen as an important reform. As the elections have shown, it
was important indeed.
Finally, there is the uncomfortable truth that ethnic parties are much
easier to control. They can be subjected to blackmail and pressure over
their wartime conduct, the literal skeletons from their closets dragged
out whenever the Empire finds it convenient. SDP had few such skeletons,
and its leader, Zlatko Lagumdzija, had the temerity to treat Bosnia�s
occupiers as equals, not masters.
Repeating History
Bosnia�s political landscape now looks eerily similar to that of 1990,
when ethnic parties dominated the republic and ran their power struggles
straight into the inferno of civil war. The parties� presentation has
changed since, but their goals have not. The SDS and HDZ still believe
in identity politics as the way to power. The SDA and its
splinter-puppet continue to publicly advocate a "citizen state"
(counting on Muslim numerical superiority), while privately encouraging
militant expressions of Muslim identity.
Politically, Bosnia has now come back to 1990. The result of quotas and
ethnic politics then were: war, destruction, massive loss of life and
property, and a comprehensive loss of liberty. What their results will
be now is anybody�s guess. And while it may seem they can�t be any
worse, that�s just more wishful thinking.
>From a larger perspective, it should be obvious by now that the Empire
does not mean well to the people of Bosnia, and it never did. To
Empire�s leaders, the "Balkans savages" are chump change, a tool for
promoting global power and influence, nothing more. They promise
prosperity through platitudes about European integration, but the EU
super-state is already there. They promise American values, but the only
ones that seem to be taking root are the "values" currently destroying
the American Republic: identity politics, kleptocracy, and violence.
Perhaps subconsciously, many Bosnians seem to have learned the lessons
of recent history, as evidenced by the mass abstention from voting. But
the large number of �migr�s to the West seems to indicate they have not
grasped the depravity of Empire just yet. Until they learn that lesson
as well, history will have a tendency to repeat itself.
� Nebojsa Malic
http://www.antiwar.com/malic/m-col.html
Serbian News Network - SNN
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.antic.org/
