Asia Times
January 27, 2005
Russian bear makes Israel jittery
By K Gajendra Singh
K Gajendra Singh served as Indian ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan from
1992-96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador to Jordan (during the
1990-91 Gulf War), Romania and Senegal. He is currently chairman of the
Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies and editorial adviser with global
geopolitics website Eurasia Research Center, USA. E-mail
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
While Syrian President Bashar Assad denied that he was in Moscow to shop
for weapons, he defended his country's right to acquire surface-to-air
missiles from Russia. He said during his four-day visit that was due to end
on Thursday that "these are weapons for air defense, meant to prevent
aircraft from intruding in our airspace".
"If Israel objects to our acquisition of these defensive weapons, it is as
if it is saying, 'We want to attack Syria but we do not want them to defend
themselves.' That's not logical," concluded Assad while addressing the
State Institute for Foreign Relations. But Assad reiterated an earlier
denial of a deal for SA-18 missiles and long-range Iskandar-E missiles that
could reach targets all over Israel.
Ever since the United States invaded Iraq in March 2003, Syria has been
threatened both by Israel and the US. Assad was furious when Israeli jets
recently buzzed him in his palace.
To mark the historic Syrian visit, Russia announced that it would write off
73% of US$13.4 billion in debt owed by Syria from the days of the USSR.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said this created "opportunities for
long-term cooperation".
A joint statement issued on Wednesday included a conciliatory message to
the US that both countries "vehemently condemn terror in all its forms and
expressions, and affirm the strong need of the international community to
channel its effort to fight effectively this dangerous challenge to the
human race".
But Assad invited Russia to the region because "Russia has an enormous
role, and has a lot of respect from Third World countries ... which really
hope that Russia will try to revive the positions it used to hold". He
added that US foreign policy on Iraq was "disastrous".
Russia seems to be returning to the Middle East. At the time of the first
Gulf crisis and war in 1990-91, when then Soviet president Mikhail
Gorbachev made moves for a peaceful settlement, he was brushed aside by US
president George H W Bush.
The other main points of the statement are as follows.
On Iraq, the two sides, while stressing commitment to Iraq's territorial
integrity, sovereignty and security, asserted support to the political
process under way in Iraq to achieve reconciliation and secure the rights
of all Iraqis regardless of their religious or ethnic belonging in line
with United Nations Resolution No 1546, whose implementation creates the
proper conditions for foreign troops to pull out from the country.
Regarding the United States' unilateralism, they expressed confidence that
the 21st-century world system should be built on international law, taking
into consideration the interests of all countries and mechanisms of
formulating unanimous stances to solve international issues through the
pivotal role the UN assumes.
On Israel's reported nuclear stockpile and Western countries' emphasis
against weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Syria and Russia agreed to
cooperate in the field of boosting international stability and preventing
the proliferation of WMD, pointing to the importance of commitment to UN
Security Council Resolution No 1540 and freeing the Middle East from all
kinds of WMD.
The joint statement criticized US President George W Bush's daily lectures
on spreading liberty, elections and democracy. "Democracy and reforms in
the Middle East should be in line with the historical, spiritual and
civilizational features of states and are strongly linked to the
achievement of a just and comprehensive peace in the region," the statement
said. Defense cooperation was muted in the phrase "it underlined that the
two sides would develop traditional cooperation in the military technical
field in a way that meets the mutual concerns of both countries and their
international commitments".
Shivers down the Israeli spine
Commenting on the visit, a jittery Jerusalem Post, while describing the
Russian role in the region, wrote, "Russia's planned sale of SA-18 missiles
to Syria looms ominously as a throwback to the [Leonid] Brezhnev era's most
misguided attitudes. Economically, Syria is a basket case whose debt-return
record must make one doubt its financial commitments. Ideologically, Syria
remains part of the terrorist internationale which has repeatedly
victimized Russia. And diplomatically, arming Damascus while Washington
suspects it of fueling the war on its troops in Iraq brings to mind
memories of Russia's role in the Vietnam and Korea wars.
"President Vladimir Putin has earned himself a reputation as a rational man
out to restore Russia's global stature. In itself, this is a worthy goal.
However, by pandering to regimes such as Assad's, not only will Putin not
have restored Russia's clout, he will convince people that he has learned
nothing from his Soviet predecessors' downfalls. He will also make people
reconsider their impression of his rationalism."
But then where would Israel be without massive annual US aid? Would not
Israel be a basket case too? Or for that matter take the massive US aid
given to Pakistan in return for its support in the "war on terror", despite
Pakistan allowing its territory to be used for training and recruitment of
jihadis to attack Indian territory, among other places.
Syrian strategic analyst Gamal Barout said recently, "Back in 2001, the
Russian side showed a desire for a strategic alliance with Damascus, but
traditional government wrangling poured cold water on the bid. Now, Syria
needs Moscow to stave off European-American pressures." Last September, the
UN Security Council adopted a resolution put forward by the US and France
that demanded the withdrawal of foreign forces (Syrian) from Lebanon and
non-interference in the Lebanese presidential elections. Russia, which has
the power of the veto, abstained in that vote.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (shortly before her confirmation to
that position) warned that Damascus faced new sanctions because of "its
suspected interference in Iraq and ties to terrorism". As a riposte,
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko described Syria as
one of its "most important partners" in the Middle East. He added, "It's
well known that slapping labels on countries and unilaterally describing
certain states as part of the 'axis of evil' has not improved anyone's
security."
While an impoverished Syria needs to maintain and modernize its army,
Russia also needs a foothold in the Middle East in view of the security and
strategic significance of the region and Euro-American competition. The
revival of the old strategic alliance of the Cold War is mutually
beneficial. Another expert said, "Moscow has been facing several problems
recently. It realized that Washington had gone too far in extending its
influence at the expense of Russia," arguing that Washington was seeking to
encircle Moscow, one way or the other.
Syrian journalist Hayan Niouf said that Syria could also play a positive
role in pushing for Moscow's active role, if not membership, in the
Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC), in exchange for Russian political
support in the UN and the Security Council. Russia, with a population of
tens of millions of Muslims, was invited as a guest at the most recent OIC
summit in Malaysia last year. With many Muslim nations distrusting the US
government and its policies, and hatred against the US in much of the
Muslim ummah (community), the OIC would be happy to grant a bigger role to
Russia.
Assad's visit to China
Assad has been trying hard to escape the suffocating straitjacket that
Israeli and US policies have tied him in. US sanctions, signed into law at
the end of 2003, include a near-blanket ban on US exports to Syria and the
power to freeze Syrian assets in the US. Except for food and medicines and
items intended for certain exempt entities, such as the US Embassy, foreign
diplomatic missions and UN agencies in Damascus, all US exports to Syria,
estimated at some $100 million a year, were banned under the sanctions. The
US resolution also banned the exportation of "dual use" technology and
restricted over-flight rights for Syrian aircraft inside US airspace.
Last June, Assad visited China, the first ever visit by a Syrian head of
state. A more liberal politician in the economic field than his late
father, Hafez Assad, the visit was made with the aim of learning from
China's economic boom. The editor-in-chief of Syria's state-run al-Thawra
newspaper remarked that the landmark visit demonstrated Damascus's keenness
on following in the footsteps of Beijing's open-door economic policy,
growth rates and political reforms. Syria was also interested in acquiring
technology from China.
Chinese Foreign Minister Zhaoxing Li, while welcoming the visit, endorsed
Syria's right to the occupied Golan Heights, and described the US sanctions
on Syria a "double-standards policy". A Chinese diplomat in Damascus also
highlighted the military cooperation between both countries, pointing to
the mutual visits of military delegations. Syria of course has energy
resources, and many European and even Asian oil giants have shown great
interest in bidding for oil and gas contracts after the withdrawal of US
oil companies.
Missile talk
Two weeks ago, when the media reported a possible missile deal between
Russia and Syria, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, then on a visit
to Washington, denied it, but Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom was
the first official to admit that Israel did ask Russia to halt the deal.
"We turned to the Russians and asked that they not complete this deal,"
said Shalom. "Syria is a country that supports terror and is supplying
Hezbollah with weapons non-stop." He added that the sale "will disrupt
regional stability and won't improve the chances for peace".
Israeli analyst Gerald Steinberg said the reported sales came as a surprise
because the Syrians did not have money to buy Russian weapons. "If this
report is true, it is very problematic and will pose a challenge to Israeli
military planners," said Steinberg. The Jerusalem Post cited top Israeli
diplomatic officials as saying that Israel asked the US to pressure Russia
to scrap the deal, claiming that the missiles could be smuggled into Iraq
and endanger the US forces there.
For Israel and the US it would be an adverse development in the wake of the
deteriorating situation around Iraq, but Moscow has made its point and
more. Russia does not like being pushed around by US-led Western efforts,
as it was in Ukraine and Georgia, or being lectured on the sale of Russian
oil giant Yukos, and it resents support for the insurgency in Chechnya.
Syria has Soviet-era Scud ground-to-ground missiles, but media reports
suggest that Moscow is ready to sell a vastly updated version of the Scud,
the Iskandar, or even SS-26 missiles. These are capable of pinpoint strikes
against targets within a 300-kilometer range, which could reach most
Israeli targets, including its atomic reactor at Dimona.
US North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Turkey's Prime Minister Recep
Tayib Erdogan recently completed a visit to Moscow, soon after Putin's
postponed visit to Ankara last month. While relations between Turkey and
the US have cooled down, primarily because of differences over the US-led
invasion of Iraq, Turkey is coming closer to its historical enemy, Russia.
In 1999, Turkey threatened to invade Syria if it did not expel Kurdish
rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan (which it did, and he was captured and
imprisoned in Turkey), but since then relations have warmed up, with the
exchange of visits by Assad and Erdogan. And after a visit by Iranian
President Mohammed Khatami to Ankara, relations with Tehran, historically
soured by the Shi'ite-Sunni rivalry, are also improving.
At the same time, relations between Turkey and Israel, which were quite
close during the Cold War and almost hot after the fall of the Berlin Wall,
have deteriorated recently, with Erdogan accusing Israel of state terrorism
in the occupied territories. Turkey also asked Israel to leave Kurdish
north Iraq alone, following reports that Mossad had been training Kurdish
peshmergas (paramilitaries) to operate in the neighborhood, especially in
Iran and Syria. Turmoil in northern Iraq has always adversely affected
Turkey's own Kurdish southeast.
Why Putin is angry
Speaking to the media in Moscow last month, Putin expressed his anger at
the West, whether it was about the latter's encouragement to the insurgency
in Chechnya or a string of US-led Western "franchised" successes in getting
anti-Russian leaders elected in its strategic neighborhood, that is, the
"Rose Revolution" in Georgia in November 2003 and the "Orange Revolution"
in the even more vitally important Ukraine, in which finally anti-Russian
Victor Yushchenko won. His utterances and the appointment of anti-Russian
Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister are provocative.
Putin said last month, "Every country has the right to choose the
development path it considers best, including in organizing its political
system." Referring to US criticism of the November 21 elections in Ukraine
(then US secretary of state Colin Powell said Washington would not accept
them), Putin retorted that he was not ecstatic about what happened in the
US. "Do you think that the electoral system in the United States is
entirely flawless? Do I have to recall the last elections in the United
States or the one before?" he added. He pointed out that the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe had criticized the US for barring
observers from some polling stations in last month's Ukrainian elections.
"There was even intimidation of voters."
He also ridiculed a Texas judge's ruling on the sale of Russian oil giant
Yukos. "I am not sure whether they know where Russia is. The level of
professional training [of the judge] perplexes me," he said. He also
lambasted the scheduled January 30 election in Iraq, saying that "it could
not be fair while the country remained occupied by US-led forces".
Russia, despite US pressure, is going ahead with cooperation in setting up
nuclear power stations in Iran. China recently signed a major long-term
agreement with Iran for energy purchases and development of the Iranian oil
and gas sector. Energy-hungry China and India are aggressively bidding for
investment and development of Yukos energy assets.
The US reaction
Before the Russian denial, while describing Russian arms sales to Syria as
speculative, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher made it clear that
the US was opposed in principle to all arms sales to Syria. He said, "We
have seen reports of the sale. The US policy on this is very clear. We're
against the sale of weaponry to Syria, the sale of lethal military
equipment to Syria, which is a state sponsor of terrorism. We think those
kinds of sales are not appropriate. The Russians know about this policy.
They know about our views." He added that the Russian entities involved in
such a sale would be subject to US sanctions under a law aimed at curbing
the flow of arms to countries on US terrorism lists. Russian Defense
Minister Ivanov was in Washington for high-level talks, including with
Powell.
The proposed sale has injected tension not only into Russian-Israel
relations, but with the US as well. Israel said that the missiles might end
up in the hands of Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas and would be aimed at
Israeli targets. Hezbollah, which is close to Syria, fought an 18-year
guerrilla war against Israeli forces in south Lebanon, firing rockets at
northern Israel until 2000, and threatens to do so again, say the Israelis.
This development might bring some restraint over the policies pursued by
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. The missiles deal would beef up
Syria's air defenses and discourage Israel from making regular threats to
Syria. The Moscow Daily Kommersant said that Damascus had asked for 18
Iskandar missiles in August, but was told they had not been fully tested.
The Syrians have now been told that the missiles are ready.
Paul Beaver, a London-based defense analyst, commented that while Russia
has upgraded Syrian military equipment, it has not sold it new arms since
1990. Beaver added that the SA-18 evolved from the Russian shoulder-held
SAM-7, which was widely used during the Vietnam War. The SA-18 is much more
flexible and can even target the non-heat-emitting section of an aircraft.
It can also overcome many Western defensive maneuvers, such as flares, used
to deflect anti-aircraft missiles. It weighs just over 10 kilograms, has a
maximum range of six kilometers and can be used to shoot down planes and
helicopters. The sophisticated missiles cost about US$250,000 each.
Analysts said the US might be concerned that Iraqi insurgents would get
their hands on these, threatening US warplanes in Iraq. This palpably is an
Israeli line.
Israel asked for US intervention in stalling the missile deal. David
Siegel, a spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington, said, "The
reports in this regard are very disturbing and, as in other cases with
strategic implications, we conduct an ongoing dialogue with the
administration."
"We have enough problems on the ground with Syria and we don't need more
problems from the sky," Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres said. Foreign
Minister Silvan Shalom said, "We have close contacts with the Russians. We
had consultations over the past few days, and we hope to reach the
necessary agreement." Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Saltanov is
in the region to discuss the missile issue.
Israelis are keen not to jeopardize improving relations with Russia, in
place since the unraveling of the USSR. Israeli Foreign Ministry official
Gideon Meir denied a Russian media report that Israel had recalled its
ambassador. The ambassador was in Israel, but would return to Moscow soon,
added Meir. Many millions of Russian Jews have immigrated to Israel,
changing the demographic makeup of Israel and making its policies more
right-wing and aggressive. Sharon, who is of Russian descent, has visited
Moscow three times since becoming prime minister in 2001. He asked Putin to
stop Iran in its covert nuclear-arms program and to restrain Syria, along
with its Lebanese and Palestinian proxies: a case of the wolf blaming the
lamb.
Conclusion
Assad's visit to Russia marks the first stirrings of the Russian bear,
which was sent into hibernation after the USSR's power was partly
dismantled by Mikhail Gorbachev, without leveraging anything in return. A
drunk or drugged Boris Yeltsin then set Russia on the road to economic
ruin, robbing it of public property, which saw the emergence of a handful
of dollar multibillionaires.
Putin, a karate expert, has come of age. He no longer appears to trust
Bush. Russia is still a world nuclear power and can defend itself and its
interests. A majority of nations, almost all of the Muslim countries,
oppose the United States' unilateralist policies and targeting of Muslims.
Russia has accumulated more than 500 billion rubles ($16.7 billion) in its
energy-stabilization fund because of unprecedented high global oil prices:
its economic situation is getting better. Putin will follow his own path.
Serbian News Network - SNN
news@antic.org
http://www.antic.org/
