USAF playing cat and mouse game over Iran By Richard Sale UPI Intelligence
Correspondent Published January 26, 2005
NEW YORK -- The U.S. Air Force is playing a dangerous game of cat and mouse
with Iran's ayatollahs, flying American combat aircraft into Iranian
airspace in an attempt to lure Tehran into turning on air defense radars,
thus allowing U.S. pilots to grid the system for use in future targeting
data, administration officials said.
"We have to know which targets to attack and how to attack them," said
one, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The flights, which have been going on for weeks, are being launched from
sites in Afghanistan and Iraq and are part of Bush administration attempts
collect badly needed intelligence on Iran's possible nuclear weapons
development sites, these sources said, speaking on condition of strict
anonymity.
"These Iranian air defense positions are not just being observed,
they're being 'templated,'" an administration official said, explaining that
the flights are part of a U.S. effort to develop "an electronic order of
battle for Iran" in case of actual conflict.
In the event of an actual clash, Iran's air defense radars would be
targeted for destruction by air-fired U.S. anti-radiation or ARM missiles,
he said.
A serving U.S. intelligence official added: "You need to know what
proportion of your initial air strikes are going to have to be devoted to
air defense suppression."
A CentCom official told United Press International that in the event of
a real military strikes, U.S. military forces would be using jamming,
deception, and physical attack of Iran's sensors and its Command, Control
and Intelligence (C3 systems).
He also made clear that that this entails "advance, detailed knowledge
of the enemy's electronic order of battle and careful preplanning."
Ellen Laipson, president and CEO of the Henry L. Stimson Center and
former CIA Middle East expert, said of the flights, "They are not
necessarily an act of war in themselves, unless they are perceived as being
so by the country that is being overflown."
Laipson explained: "It's not unusual for countries to test each other's
air defenses from time to time, to do a little probing -- but it can be
dangerous if the target country believes that such flights could mean an
imminent attack."
She said her concern was that Iran "will not only turn on its air
defense radars but use them to fire missiles at U.S. aircraft," an act which
would "greatly increase tensions" between the two countries.
The air reconnaissance is taking place in conjunction with other
intelligence collection efforts, U.S. government officials said.
To collect badly needed intelligence on the ground about Iran's alleged
nuclear program, the United States is depending heavily on Israeli-trained
teams of Kurds in northern Iraq and on U.S.-trained teams of former Iranian
exiles in the south to gather the intelligence needed for possible strikes
against Iran's 13 or more suspected nuclear sites, according to serving and
retired U.S. intelligence officials.
Both groups are doing cross border incursions into Iran, some in
conjunction with U.S. Special Forces, these sources said.
They claimed the Kurds operating from Kurdistan, in areas they control.
The second group, working from the south, is the Mujahedeen-e Khalq, listed
by the State Department as a terrorist group, operating from southern Iraq,
these sources said.
The use of the MEK for U.S.-intelligence-gathering missions strikes some
former U.S. intelligence officials as bizarre. The State Department's annual
publication, "Patterns of Global Terrorism," lists them as a terrorist
organization.
According to the State Department report, the MEK were allies with Iraqi
dictator Saddam Hussein in fighting Iran and, in addition, "assisted Saddam
in "suppressing opposition within Iraq, and performed internal security for
the Iraqi regime."
After the U.S. invasion of Iraq in March 2003, U.S. forces seized and
destroyed MEK munitions and weapons, and about 4,000 MEK operatives were
"consolidated, detained, disarmed, and screened for any past terrorist acts,
the report said.
Shortly afterwards, the Bush administration began to use them in its
covert operations against Iran, former senior U.S. intelligence officials
said.
"They've been active in the south for some time," said former CIA
counterterrorism chief, Vince Cannistraro.
The MEK are said to be currently launching raids from Camp Habib in
Basra, but recently Pakistan President Pervez Musharaff granted permission
for the MEK to operate from Pakistan's Baluchi area, U.S. officials said.
Asked about the Musharaff decision, Laipson said: "Not a smart move. The
last thing he (Musharaff) needs is another batch of hotheads on Pakistani
soil."
A former senior Iranian diplomat told United Press International that
the Kurds in the Baluchi areas of Pakistan can operate in freedom because
the Baluchis "have no love for the mullahs of Iran."
In fact, in the early 1980s, there were massacres of Iranian
Revolutionary Guards in the area by Baluchi militants who wish to be
independent, he said.
Both covert groups are tasked by the Bush administration with planting
sensors or "sniffers" close to suspected Iran nuclear weapons development
sites that will enable the Bush administration to monitor the progress on
the program and develop targeting data, these sources said.
"There is an urgent need to obtain this information, at least in the
minds of administration hawks," an administration official said.
"This looks to be turning into a pretty large-scale covert operation," a
former long-time CIA operator in the region told UPI. In addition to the air
strikes on allegedly Iranian nuclear weapons sites, the second aim of the
operation is to secure the support in Iran of those "who view U.S. policy of
hostility towards Iran's clerics with favor," he said.
The United States is also attempting to erect a covert infrastructure in
Iran able to support U.S. efforts, this source said. It consists of Israelis
and other U.S. assets, using third country passports, who have created a
network of front companies that they own and staff. "It's a covert
infrastructure for material support," a U.S. administration official said.
The network would be able to move money, weapons and personnel around
inside Iran, he said. The covert infrastructure could also provide safe
houses and the like, he said.
Cannistraro, who knew of the program, said: "I doubt the quality of
these kinds or programs," explaining the United States had set up a similar
network just before the hostage-rescue attempt in 1980. "People forget that
the Iranians quickly rolled up that entire network after the rescue attempt
failed," Cannistraro said.
The administration's fear is that by possessing a nuclear weapon, Iran
will gain a new stature and status in the region strengthening its
determination to remove the U.S presence from the region and making its
hostility seem more credible, U.S. officials said.
There is also the administration's fear that Iran, with Syria's help,
will accelerate Palestinian terrorism as Israel withdraws from the Gaza
Strip, these sources said.
So the United States, backed by Israel, is deadly earnest about
neutralizing Iran's nuclear weapons site. "The administration has determined
that there is no diplomatic solution," said John Pike, president of the
online think-tank globalsecurity.org.
"Like the Israelis, the Bush administration has decided that forces of
sweetness and light won't be running Iran any time soon, and that having
atomic ayatollahs is simply not acceptable."
Said Cannistraro of the administration's policy: "Its very, very, very
dangerous."
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