RUSSIA WILL HELP UKRAINE BECOME INDEPENDENT
MOSCOW (Anatoly Belyayev, expert, Center of Russia's Political Analysis, for RIA Novosti) The recent developments in Ukraine, which ended in the emergence of a new government, should leave Russia with no illusions about its special relationship with the country and prompt the Russian leadership to adopt a pragmatic approach to its southwestern neighbor. The new government's line-up prompts two conclusions. First, Ukraine will change its domestic and foreign policy dramatically. Second, the new leaders intend to be a little more realistic in their reforms, i.e., they will heed only the interests of the members of the "old" elite who accept the new rules of the game. The recent appointments in the foreign ministry and security ministries speak for themselves. Top positions in these ministries have gone to staunch supporters of the new president and premier. Interestingly, these new faces spent years living and studying in the West. Oleg Rybachuk, the deputy prime minister in charge of European integration issues, will apparently oversee the activities of the "transfer mechanism" between Western "sponsors" and the "recipients," i.e., the Ukrainian authorities. Anatoly Gritsenko, the defense minister, is an ex-head of the Razumkov Center and Mr. Yushchenko's campaign staff. He knows senior NATO officials personally. All Razumkov Center officials were trained at US military academies, so it is hardly surprising that he wants Ukraine to join the alliance in the next few years. Mr. Gritsenko made a statement recently demanding that Russia withdraw its Black Sea Fleet base from Sevastopol, which violates the Russian-Ukrainian treaty on friendship and the treaty on Russia's naval base on the Black Sea, which guarantees a Russian presence in Sevastopol until 2017. Alexander Turchinov, the chief of the Security Service and the first deputy leader of Yulia Timoshenko's nationalist Batkovshchina (Fatherland) party, is a member of the AmericanCharismatic movement, a religious sect. The activities of Nikolai Tomenko, the deputy prime minister overseeing humanitarian policy, reflect the Timoshenko government's highly ideological approach. Mr. Tomenko has accused the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which is subordinate to the Moscow Patriarchy, of fueling ethnic and regional tension in Ukraine. Given these individuals in Ukraine's foreign policy and security establishment, Russia will hardly develop special, let alone "fraternal," relations with Ukraine. Its domestic policy, above all in the economic sphere, does not promise anything good for Russia. The government's program is odd, to say the least. Its chapters are called Faith, Justice, Life, Harmony, Security, and Peace, and they lack any specific figures. Nevertheless, the new government has outlined its activities and even started making moves in one area. The government has decided to cancel the decision to privatize one of the country's largest steel mills, Krivorozhstal. The mill went to ex-President Kuchma's son-in-law, Viktor Pinchuk, and Donetsk-based oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, who backed Viktor Yanukovich in his presidential campaign, at a blatantly biased auction. (Russia's Severstal's bid was the largest at the auction). Yet, the fact that the new leaders rushed to revise privatization results in favor of the "old" elite speaks volumes. The new authorities are likely to undertake property redistribution (allies in the security bodies will help them) and probably not in favor of new "orange" owners who simply cannot afford large enterprises, but in favor of Western groups. The new authorities will thereby undermine their opponents' economic foundation and pay the West for the support it rendered before and during the revolution, and is continuing to provide now. This policy is not inconsistent, and it will help the government achieve its major objective of integrating Ukraine into European bodies as soon as possible. What should Russia do in the circumstances? And how should it develop relations with the new regime? Given the prospect that the "orange" revolutionaries apparently have taken hold in Kiev and their position can only be shattered if the economic situation deteriorates dramatically, which is unlikely with Ukraine's exports soaring, Russia should accept reality and adopt a pragmatic approach. In the first instance, Russia must protect Russian property in Ukraine, which is in danger under de-privatization plans, by all possible means. Russia has a good lever of influence: the major Ukrainian metal and pipe exporters' dependence on the Russian market. In addition, Russia should be guided by the same principles in its relations with Ukraine seeking absolute independence that govern its relations with countries outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This means Ukraine has to be denied the privileges it received as Russia's closest partner in the common economic space and the CIS. Energy tariffs should be raised to European levels (2-2.5-fold), and control over commodities, services, and labor force movements between the countries should be toughened. Russia will thereby help Ukraine's new government achieve its core objective - complete independence. It remains to be seen whether the Ukrainian government is prepared for it. - http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5403844&startrow=1&date=2 005-02-11&do_alert=0 Serbian News Network - SNN news@antic.org http://www.antic.org/
