http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/raju_gc_thomas/2007/12/sacrificing_stabi
lity.html
Sacrificing Stability
To allow Kosovo's independence would demonstrate that
violent secessionism works, a precedent that must be
avoided
Raju GC Thomas
The Guardian,
December 29, 2007
Kosovo's march toward independence is gathering pace,
with the leaders of Kosovo's Albanians - Hashim Thaci
and Agim Ceku - threatening to declare unilateral
independence any day now. This is something that
Serbia will undoubtedly reject, with the backing of
Vladimir Putin's Russia.
Much of the world seems to think that Serbia's role in
the Balkan wars of the 1990's puts it in the wrong,
and that that should be the end of the matter. But
Serbia's point of view is not without merit, and many
other countries with territorially concentrated ethnic
minorities have reason to be anxious about the
precedent that might be set if Kosovo's declaration of
independence is recognised.
Consider, first, that Kosovo is the historical heart
and religious soul of Serbia. Hundreds of Serb
Orthodox churches, monasteries, and holy sites in
Kosovo attest to this.
Moreover, Kosovo's demographic transformation over the
last 100 years, when Albanians overtook the local Serb
population, partly reflects an influx of Albanians
from Albania - for decades a political and economic
basket case, owing to Enver Hoxha's hermetic
communism. At the same time, many Serbs have left
Kosovo before and after Nato's intervention in 1999,
whether fleeing from Albanian violence against them or
simply lured by better opportunities in Serbia proper.
Serbia's claim to Kosovo is, to Serbs, far stronger
than Russia's claim to Chechnya, China's to Xinjiang,
India's to Kashmir (a claim still disputed by
Pakistan), and the Philippines' to the island of
Mindanao. All of these are provinces with Muslim
majority populations that are part of non-Muslim
majority states.
But Russia, China, and India are big states and will
not tolerate any detachment of their territories. So
there is no serious international effort to force them
to do so. The Philippines has effectively lost control
of Mindanao, just as Serbia has lost control of
Kosovo, yet no one has recognised Mindanao's
unilateral declaration of independence. So why should
Kosovo's declaration be accepted?
Nor is it only Russia, China, and India that oppose
Kosovo's independence, but also Muslim-majority
Nigeria, which retains Biafra, where a bloody civil
war with Catholic Ibos was fought in the late 1960's.
Muslim-majority Indonesia lost its Catholic-majority
East Timor through western political intervention, but
its claims to East Timor were tenuous, as it only
invaded the island a few decades ago.
Even in Europe, where Catalonia and the Basque region
push for secession from Spain, some in Flanders want
an end to Belgium, and Scotland's ruling Scottish
National party wants eventually to break away from
Britain, support for Kosovo's independence is far from
universal.
Worse, ordinary Serbs see an obvious international
double standard. The territorial integrity and
sovereignty of Croatia and Bosnia were enforced in the
1990's, despite declarations of independence by the
Serbian "Republic of Krajina" in Croatia and the
Serbian "Republika Srpska" in Bosnia. Why is Kosovo
being treated differently?
Today, there are roughly 700,000 Serb refugees in
Serbia from Croatia and Bosnia who are unable or
unwilling to return to their homes, including
virtually all of Croatia's Serbs, except those
converted to Catholicism to become Croats. Indeed,
Serbia currently contains the largest refugee
population in Europe. If Kosovo gains independence,
these numbers will swell, as an exodus of all
remaining Serbs is likely unless their territorial
bastions - particularly in northern Kosovo, around
Mitrovica - join with Serbia.
More broadly, to allow Kosovo's independence would
demonstrate that violent secessionism works. In that
case, the world ought to get used to seeing the Kosovo
"strategy" applied elsewhere. First, faceless ethnic
secessionists attack civilians and police. Not knowing
where the enemy is hidden within the civilian
population, security forces retaliate
indiscriminately. Human rights violations elicit an
international outcry and condemnation, followed by
intervention and occupation by foreign military
forces. And, in the denouement, the state loses
control of its province as the secessionists declare
independence.
Setting such a precedent in Kosovo must be avoided to
ensure stability not only in the Balkans, but in all
countries with dissatisfied ethnic minority
populations. The territorial integrity and sovereignty
of Serbia must be preserved in accordance with the
United Nations Charter, the 1975 Helsinki Agreement
Final Act guaranteeing the boundaries of Europe, and
UN Resolution 1244 of 1999, which guaranteed Serbia's
existing borders.
The former Yugoslavia has had enough destruction and
mass killing. Preserving national integrity is a
universal principle of peace from which Serbia should
not be excluded.
In cooperation with Project Syndicate, 2007.
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