http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/2007123232437.aspx
Embrace the Suck: A Pocket Guide to Milspeak by Austin Bay
On Point
The Quest for Kosovo's "Final Status"
by Austin Bay
January 23, 2007
After 16 years of war and peacekeeping, the Great Yugoslav War of Devolution
has entered a new, promising phase.
But don't call it finished, and don't call it peace -- at least not quite
yet.
A substantial slice of Serbia's electorate remains angry and unpacified. In
last Sunday's Serbian election, the "ultra-nationalist" Serbian Radical
Party (SRP) took the largest number of party-line votes. The SRP opposes the
creation of an independent Kosovo and lays claim to parts of Bosnia and
Croatia. Though disdaining former Serb dictator Slobodan Milosevic (who died
while being tried for genocide), the SRP has no intention of compromising
over Kosovo. Nor have SRP voters forgiven Western Europe and the United
States for the 1999 "NATO war" on Serbia, a war fought without U.N.
authorization.
Yet Western European diplomats are delighted with the election results. The
SRP did not get enough votes to form a government. Initial results indicate
a patchwork collection of "pro-European" democratic parties took over 60
percent of the vote. Political and economic aid from the European Union
should cobble together a coalition "reform government" that may control a
two-thirds majority Serbia's parliament.
That doesn't immediately translate into a peaceful resolution of what to do
about Kosovo (the "final status" decision in diplo-speak), but it does bode
well for continuing the slow integration of Yugoslavia's leftovers into the
European Union. Given time, European diplomats are betting that the Balkan
integration project will slowly decompress the historical, ethnic and
religious antagonisms that afflict the region.
The Balkans in 2007 are different, and far better off, than the Balkans in
1999. Macedonia and Albania have stabilized (and remember, Macedonia was
fighting a civil war in 2001). Croatia has made economic and political
progress. However, a small EU-led peacekeeping contingent remains in Bosnia,
with good reason. Bosnia's "split state," with Bosnian Muslims and Croats
balancing Bosnian Serbs, just manages to creak along.
NATO troops also remain in Kosovo, some 16,500 as of Jan. 1. That is a
long-term occupation.
Over the last eight years, the United Nations and European Union have played
a careful diplomatic game regarding Kosovo's final status. The Serbs,
however, aren't stupid and can read the diplomatic body language. That
wiggling semaphore suggests the European Union will recommend Kosovar
independence -- though likely an independence with limitations. What that
might look like in political and organizational terms remains intentionally
vague. There is also talk of "autonomy" within a "democratic Serbia," though
Albanian Kosovars (who now control Kosovo) reject this option. Still, a
democratic Serbia does exist, and Serbia just conducted a clean, honest
election.
Last year, the European Union and United Nations said a decision on Kosovo
would take place shortly after the Serbian elections. Now, the United States
says all parties should take "more time." Certainly, Serbia's reform parties
have earned the opportunity to form a government and establish its bona
fides without the disruption of a U.N. decision.
"More time" also gives European politicians time to coax Russia.
The Russians have objected to Kosovar independence from Serbia, and Russia
wields a U.N. Security Council veto, which could block a pro-independence
U.N. policy. Kosovo's government has approached Moscow on its own, trying to
assure the Kremlin that Kosovar independence won't set a precedent for other
independence and separatist movements in Europe. That's a tough sell, but
Moscow might agree in return for future political considerations. What might
those include? Concessions regarding the status of ethnic Russians in
Ukraine and Transdniestr are possibilities.
Advocates of partition in Iraq should approach "the Yugoslav analogy" with
extreme caution. Syria, Iran and Turkey thoroughly oppose an independent
Kurdistan, carved from Iraq. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait oppose an
independent Shia Arab state in southern Iraq. Both do provide rough analogs
to Serbian and Russian opposition to Kosovar independence. However, the
Middle East's dysfunctional neighborhood lacks a European Union -- a stable,
supra-national "reuniter" that rewards peace and democracy with economic and
political benefits. The missing "Middle Eastern EU" is a major difference.
Comment
To find out more about Austin Bay and read features by other Creators
Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at
www.creators.com.
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