http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/29/europe/letter.php
Bloomberg News
January 30, 2008
Kosovo's independence won't end its struggle
By Celestine Bohlen
-[Kosovo has] a shoddy infrastructure; a population of
about two million, half under the age of 25; an
unemployment rate above 50 percent; and a tax system
that depends on custom duties for 60 percent of
receipts.
-The EU, the World Bank and other international
institutions have kept the economy afloat. Last year
alone, the United Nations' budget for Kosovo was $217
million.
-Electricity production is so erratic, lights go out
in the capital several times a day, while some
villages have no electricity at all.
-"There will be a burst of fever, but it will not last
long because it is not sustainable," says Lieutenant
General Xavier de Marnhac of France, a commander of
NATO's Kosovo force. "The NATO flag will wave over
Kosovo for a long time to come."
PRISTINA - A drive down the pockmarked Bill Clinton
Boulevard in Kosovo's capital shows why this region's
almost nine-year struggle to secede from Serbia might
have been the easy part of independence.
The hard part for Kosovo, set to declare its freedom
soon, will be to stimulate its damaged economy, repair
its roads and generate enough electricity to keep the
lights on.
"Getting the economy going is a top priority," says
Admiral Mark Fitzgerald of the United States, the
commander of NATO's Allied Joint Force, based in
Naples. He was in Kosovo this month to meet the newly
elected prime minister, Hashim Thaci, a former rebel
commander.
With 16,000 North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops
keeping a tenuous peace between Albanian and Serbian
residents, Kosovo enters the world of nations with
major handicaps.
The poorest region of the former Yugoslavia, it
inherits a shoddy infrastructure; a population of
about two million, half under the age of 25; an
unemployment rate above 50 percent; and a tax system
that depends on custom duties for 60 percent of
receipts.
"From today to a sustainable economy, it is a question
of years and years," says Markku Laamanen, deputy head
of the Kosovo mission for the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Since 1999, when a NATO bombing campaign pushed
Serbian forces out of the mostly Albanian region,
Kosovo has been the adopted orphan of the
international community. While the U.S. and European
Union support independence, Serbia and Russia oppose
it. The EU, the World Bank and other international
institutions have kept the economy afloat. Last year
alone, the United Nations' budget for Kosovo was $217
million.
....
"This part of Europe has produced lots of history,
hyper-history even," says Agim Zatriqi, director of
Radio Television Kosovo, the public broadcasting
company. "Now is the time to produce more useful
things, like goods."
Soon, Kosovars won't be able to blame their
international mentors for the slow pace of economic
change, says Akan Ismaili, 34, chief executive of
Ipko.net, the first Internet provider in Kosovo and
one of the largest mobile phone providers.
"What will change is the psychology of dependence,
which has been a barrier until now," says Ismaili,
whose company sold a majority stake in 2006 to Telekom
Slovenije, the national phone company in Slovenia, and
is now planning $200 million in new investments.
Along with a flag and a country code, Kosovo, which
uses the euro as its currency, will get a credit
rating. Without this much-needed benchmark, companies
face interest rates of 12 percent and higher. "Any
level of risk is better than the unknown," Ismaili
says.
>From roads and housing to schools, you name it and
Kosovo needs it. Electricity production is so erratic,
lights go out in the capital several times a day,
while some villages have no electricity at all.
The World Bank has sponsored plans for a new power
station fueled by Kosovo's plentiful lignite coal
deposits. Four U.S. and European companies have
submitted bids. The new plant, which will cost as much
as $4 billion, won't be operational until 2014,
however. The project's second phase, which would
generate revenue by selling energy to neighboring
countries, isn't scheduled to come on line until 2018.
The UN and EU have helped Kosovo with privatization.
ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, bought
two steel mills, although the sale won't be final
until Kosovo's status is resolved. Mining and tourism
remain prospects for foreign investors, says Paul
Acda, an official at the UN's Kosovo mission.
Meanwhile, Serb enclaves see independence as a threat.
Of the estimated 120,000 Serbs left in Kosovo, about
half live in the region above the Ibar River, which
includes the northern half of the city of Mitrovica.
Supported by Serbia politically and economically,
Serbs here vehemently oppose secession.
Slavisa Stanic, general secretary of the Mitrovica
Chamber of Commerce, says international interference
prevents Albanians and Serbs from solving their
problems themselves.
"If there were fewer stories in the media about
independence, there would be more investment," he
says. "Not in Albanian businesses, though, because
they have a well-known reputation for being
swindlers."
Such sentiments have kept tensions higher here in than
in other parts of Kosovo. Milan Ivanovic heads the
Serbian National Council in Mitrovica, which assists
Serbs with Belgrade's help. On Jan. 10, he dismissed
an appeal for inter-ethnic peace, delivered in Serbian
by Thaci before the Parliament, as "demagoguery and
hypocrisy."
Serbs, Albanians and international observers worry
that violence could break out after Kosovo is
independent. Still, with NATO troops guarding the
Serbian border, no one expects another war or even the
kind of rioting that killed 19 people in March 2004.
"There will be a burst of fever, but it will not last
long because it is not sustainable," says Lieutenant
General Xavier de Marnhac of France, a commander of
NATO's Kosovo force. "The NATO flag will wave over
Kosovo for a long time to come."
Serbian News Network - SNN
news@antic.org
http://www.antic.org/
