With Recount Complete And More Ballots Counted, Franken's Lead Appears To Be Insurmountable
By
<http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/kleefeld>Eric
Kleefeld - January 3, 2009, 6:54PM
<http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/01/with_more_absentee_ballots_cou.php>http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/01/with_more_absentee_ballots_cou.php
Today's events in Minnesota make it appear that a
Norm Coleman victory is now pretty much
impossible -- and it just so happens to have
occurred on the day his Senate term officially
expired. A nice extra touch.
Election officials today counted through about
950 absentee ballots that both campaigns agreed
had been wrongly rejected, completing the recount
unless there is any new court intervention. The
result: Al Franken's paper-thin lead of 49 votes
has now jumped to 225 votes -- way beyond what
most people crunching the numbers expected, based
on the geographic spread of the newly-counted
ballots.
With these new figures, it's worth examining just
how slim the odds would be of Coleman finding
some way to win this thing, should he follow
through on his campaign's vow to challenge the
result in court.
First, there's Coleman's claim that 25 selected
precincts double-counted a bunch of absentee
votes for Franken, netting Franken about 110
votes. During the recount, the state Supreme
Court ruled that Coleman could only raise this
issue after the recount concluded and an apparent
winner was determined. But if courts agree with
him on that and took those votes away from
Franken, Coleman would still lose. Then there's
the canvassing board's decision to restore to
Franken a net total of 46 votes that went missing
from a single precinct during the recount.
Coleman's campaign has indicated that they plan
to contest that decision, but winning on it would
still have him behind.
One other thing: The burden of proof in any legal
arguments will be on Coleman, with the assumption
going in that Franken's victory was legitimate.
And even if he won both of the two issues above,
he'd still be almost one hundred votes behind.
What options does he have left? Coleman's only
hope would be to win on his campaign's latest
efforts to restart this phase of the recount and
force the counting of about 650 rejected absentee
ballot envelopes from red precincts, which the
local officials say were tossed properly. An
affidavit from a
<http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Other/2008%20Elections/HCA_Emergency_Motion_2.doc>Hennepin
County election official shows the Coleman
campaign hasn't even supplied reasons to look at
these ballots, and election officials in multiple
counties, including
<http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Other/2008%20Elections/Ramsey.pdf>Ramsey
county,
<http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Other/2008%20Elections/Pipestone.pdf>Pipestone
County and others all say they've been taking the
time to review the Coleman list, and they stand
by their decisions.
The Coleman campaign still seems likely to file
an election contest, challenging this result in
court. This would bottle up Franken's victory for
weeks or even months, and delay Al Franken from
being able to take his seat in the Senate. But at
this point it's difficult to see how they could
have much of a leg to stand on. It really does
look like Al Franken's lead is insurmountable.
On Sun, Jan 4, 2009 at 9:47 PM, Theron Horton
<<mailto:theronhor...@mac.com>theronhor...@mac.com>
wrote:
Just the AP article on this so far:
<http://www.in-forum.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D95FVNS80>http://www.in-forum.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D95FVNS80
Franken gains big in count of new Minn. ballots
By BRIAN BAKST Associated Press Writer
The Associated Press - Sunday, January 04, 2009
ST. PAUL, Minn.
Democrat Al Franken pushed his lead in
Minnesota's Senate recount above 220 Saturday as
state and campaign officials counted absentee
ballots that weren't part of the original
election tally.
Franken netted at least 175 votes more than
Republican Norm Coleman in the review of the
formerly sealed absentee ballots. There were more
than 900 in the pile that were counted Saturday.
The count came on the day Coleman's term as
senator officially expired. He entered this step
trailing Democratic challenger Al Franken by 49
votes.
The ballots under consideration were among those
rejected by poll workers but later found to be
excluded in error. The campaigns later agreed
they should be added to the recount.
But before the counting process started Saturday
morning, Coleman's campaign objected to moving
forward. Attorney Tony Trimble demanded the
counting wait until the Supreme Court rules on
the campaign's request to add hundreds more
ballots to the mix.
"We feel you are proceeding in a very
inconsistent and unconstitutional manner,"
Trimble told representatives of the secretary of
state's office.
Franken's lawyer Marc Elias said if the court
wanted to delay the count it would have ordered
it halted.
Things got going after the secretary of state's
office consulted the attorney general's office.
The painstaking process of preparing the ballots
for counting meant not a single one had actually
been counted by a lunch break. Each ballot is
supposed to be enclosed in an unmarked secrecy
envelope inside of an envelope containing the
voter's name. The morning was spent segregating
the two envelopes to prevent anyone from
connecting a person's vote to their name.
The absentee ballots were from around Minnesota.
They were among nearly 12,000 rejected on or
before Nov. 4. Local officials re-examined them
under a court order and decided they should have
been counted. The court, however, required
signoff from the campaigns. Another 400
identified by local officials were struck by one
of the campaigns.
Minnesota has four legal reasons for rejecting an
absentee ballot: If the voter's name and address
on the envelope don't match their application; if
their signature isn't genuine; if the voter isn't
properly registered or eligible; or if the voter
has been found to have already voted in the
election.
The state Supreme Court ordered that rejected
absentees be included in cases where the
candidates and local officials agreed errors were
made.
Coleman's campaign has a pending request before
the high court to include an additional 650
ballots it says were improperly rejected but not
forwarded by local officials to St. Paul for
counting.
The court has not said when it would rule in that case.
The end of the recount is pushing within sight
though. The state Canvassing Board will reconvene
Monday and, if need be, Tuesday to consider
challenges to the actual ballots from the weekend
count. Campaigns could challenge ballots where
they thought voter intent was unclear or had
another deficiency that would disqualify it.
When that is done, the board will declare which
candidate received the most overall votes in the
election. Barring court intervention, it will be
Franken.
That declaration opens a seven-day window for the
losing candidate to challenge the result in
court. Such a lawsuit could take months to
resolve and leave Minnesota with only one senator
for the time being.
Coleman's campaign has said there is little doubt
it will challenge the outcome if the senator was
on the losing end. Franken's campaign has refused
to outline its potential next steps.
Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press. All rights
reserved. The information contained in the AP
News report may not be published, broadcast,
rewritten or redistributed without the prior
written authority of The Associated Press.
________________________________________________________________________________
On Jan 4, 2009, at 8:12 PM, Mark Crispin Miller wrote:
>>Original-recipient: rfc822;<mailto:m...@mail.nyu.edu>m...@mail.nyu.edu
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>Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 18:40:26 -0500
>
>From: Mark Crispin Miller
><<mailto:markcrispinmil...@gmail.com>markcrispinmil...@gmail.com>
>
>To: <mailto:mark.mil...@nyu.edu>mark.mil...@nyu.edu
>
>Subject: [Fwd: OThers may have this question, too.]
>
>
>
>
>-------- Original Message --------
>
>Subject: OThers may have this question, too.
>
>Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2009 18:14:51 -0500
>
>From: Charles Musser
><<mailto:charles.mus...@yale.edu>charles.mus...@yale.edu>
>
>To:
>
> <mailto:newsfromunderground+ow...@googlegroups.com>newsfromunderground+ow...@googlegroups.com
>
>References: <a0624084fc586e9717...@[10.0.1.2]>
>
>
>
>
>Dear Mark,
>
>
>Always find your emails useful and informative.
> Thanks. Here is a question that no one seems
>to be addressing. Coleman wants some additional
>ballots to be counted. What is the nature of
>these ballots. Why weren't they counted before.
> Where do they come from, etc. How real are
>these? etc. Does anyone know the answer to
>this. If you have any info, I suspect other
>readers would be grateful.
>
>
>thanks,
>
>
>Charlie
>
>>
>
>
>--
>
>Charles Musser
>
>Professor of American Studies, Film Studies and Theater Studies
>
>Yale University
>
>53 Wall Street mail: PO Box 208363
>
>New Haven, Ct. 06511 New Haven, Ct. 06520
>
>
>
>
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