From Dr. Meryl Nass: The way I would tell if the virus were lab-made would be to look at its genome and compare with existing influenza strains. I doubt it has been decoded yet (it will be soon) though these viruses change fast. Pending that information, I do not think things are suspicious yet . . . especially given what seems to me like low virulence.
More likely, the flu viruses recombined with swine genes from pigs at Smithfield Farms, a massive industrial farming enterprise located at the epicenter of the epidemic. Flu viruses commonly recombine in both pigs and many types of birds, so having a mix of genes from different hosts is not at all as strange as it sounds. Recall that SARS had about a 50% death rate. It dropped after very aggressive treatment at a level Canada (and only a first world country) could provide. The 1918 flu had a 1-2% death rate, still horrendous. This one does not appear to have anywhere near those rates. Other flu strains that looked pretty scary died out after a few months. We see the worst cases first in a new illness; the less severe cases do not get typed. Given that, this death rate seems pretty tame. But we still are missing an awful lot of information. If someone who has been in contact with people exposed in Mexico, or otherwise is at high risk for this strain, starts coughing, develops a temp of at least 100 degrees or a sore throat--she should wear a mask and stay in her room as much as possible, preferably with the window open to lower the viral count indoors. We do not yet know whether Tamiflu will be very helpful or not. Theoretically it should provide some benefit, used early. She should get a nasal swab (NOT the rapid test, which has low accuracy), but use a PCR method or viral culture to look for influenza A. If positive, the specimen should be sent to the state lab for typing for H1N1. Meryl Meryl Nass, MD Mount Desert Island Hospital Bar Harbor, Maine 04609 W 207 288-5081 ext. 1220 C 207 522-5229 H 207 244-9165 pager 207 818-0708 <http://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com>http://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com <http://www.anthraxvaccine.org>http://www.anthraxvaccine.org --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to Mark Crispin Miller's "News From Underground" newsgroup. To unsubscribe, send a blank email to newsfromunderground-unsubscr...@googlegroups.com OR go to http://groups.google.com/group/newsfromunderground and click on the "Unsubscribe or change membership" link in the yellow bar at the top of the page, then click the "Unsubscribe" button on the next page. For more News From Underground, visit http://markcrispinmiller.com -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
