From Dr. Meryl Nass:

The way I would tell if the virus were lab-made would be to look at 
its genome and compare with existing influenza strains.  I doubt it 
has been decoded yet (it will be soon) though these viruses change 
fast.  Pending that information, I do not think things are suspicious 
yet . . . especially given what seems to me like low virulence.

More likely, the flu viruses recombined with swine genes from pigs at 
Smithfield Farms, a massive industrial farming enterprise located at 
the epicenter of the epidemic.  Flu viruses commonly recombine in 
both pigs and many types of birds, so having a mix of genes from 
different hosts is
not at all as strange as it sounds.

Recall that SARS had about a 50% death rate.  It dropped after very 
aggressive treatment at a level Canada (and only a first world 
country) could provide.  The 1918 flu had a 1-2% death rate, still 
horrendous.  This one does  not appear to have anywhere near those 
rates.  Other flu strains that looked pretty scary died out after a 
few months.

We see the worst cases first in a new illness; the less severe cases 
do not get typed.  Given that, this death rate seems pretty tame.

But we still are missing an awful lot of information.

If someone who has been in contact with people exposed in Mexico, or 
otherwise is at high risk for this strain, starts coughing, develops 
a temp of at least 100 degrees or a sore throat--she should wear a 
mask and stay in her room as much as possible, preferably with the 
window open to lower the viral count indoors.  We do not yet know 
whether Tamiflu will be very helpful or not.  Theoretically it should 
provide some benefit, used early.  She should get a nasal swab (NOT 
the rapid test, which has low accuracy), but use a PCR method or 
viral culture to look for influenza A.  If positive, the specimen 
should be sent to the state lab for typing for H1N1.

Meryl
Meryl Nass, MD
Mount Desert Island Hospital
Bar Harbor, Maine 04609
W  207 288-5081 ext. 1220
C   207 522-5229
H   207 244-9165
pager 207 818-0708
<http://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com>http://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com
<http://www.anthraxvaccine.org>http://www.anthraxvaccine.org


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