"We think that what we saw in Mexico in spring is just a small portion of what will happen in winter in the Northern Hemisphere."
MCM Monday, July 06, 2009 Full Coverage: H1N1 Influenza Nationwide alert 'Argentine gov't should focus on community care,' H1N1 specialist By Julien Ferrat, BuenosAiresHerald.com staff. http://www.buenosairesherald.com/BreakingNews/View/5759 Alejandro Macías is an infectious diseases specialist and the head of the Infections Control department of the Salvador Zubirán National Institute, in Mexico City. He was one of the main coordinators of the Health Emergency Committee in Mexico during the H1N1 outbreak there. Macías was in Argentina last week, invited by the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO). He talked with the BuenosAiresHerald.com, just after going back to Mexico and reaching his first conclusions. BuenosAiresHerald.com: What was the purpose of your visit in Argentina with the PAHO committee? Alejandro Macías: Well, we want to prepare for next winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The PAHO is studying how the Influenza A evolves in Argentina, as it is a new situation: the virus is spreading as the cold season begins. We think that what we saw in Mexico in spring is just a small portion of what will happen in winter in the Northern Hemisphere. BAH.com: Media and politicians often claimed the vaccine would be ready then... A.M.: It won't be a solution. Only a few countries will produce it. Six billion people live on this planet and the production capacity won't be enough. There will be enough vaccines for maybe 10 or 15 percent of the population. And the majority of them will be distributed in the most developed countries. It might be the solution later, but not at first. BAH.com: Was Mexico ready for the Influenza A outbreak? A.M.: Well, in Mexico we were very well prepared. We had been working on an Influenza outbreak scenario for three years when the first H1N1 virus cases appeared in Mexico. We started to prepare when we thought the bird flu could spread all around the world. The surprise was that it started in Mexico. We thought we could maybe see it spread first in another country and have one, maybe two months to study the case. Unfortunately it started here. But - again - we were well prepared, in particular with our Tamiflu stocks. BAH.com: What do you think are the main differences between the H1N1 outbreak in Mexico and in Argentina? A.M.: I'll start with similarities. The main one is that for 95% of the people infected, there is no need to even go to the hospital. Infected people will have fever for two or three days, almost like a regular flu, maybe with more headaches. But it will stay a minor infection. Only a little portion of the people infected will need breathing assistance. And a very small percentage of the population is at risk. BAH.com: And the differences? A.M.: The main difference is obviously that the H1N1 virus appeared in Argentina in the beginning of the winter, which is a new situation. With cold weather, a lot of other viruses are in the air. That led to different consequences: a lot more children and pregnant women are infected in Argentina. In Mexico, they represented only a little fraction of the patients. BAH.com: You said Mexico was well prepared. And the "Green Alert" has been declared six weeks ago in your country, putting an end to the State of Health Emergency in Mexico...Was Argentina as well prepared? A.M.: It's complicated. It depends on provinces, districts and hospitals. But from what I have seen, many hospitals were well prepared, such as the Posadas Hospital (district of El Palomar, Buenos Aires Province). Argentina had more time than Mexico to prepare and strengthen health structures. I believe that, in Mexico, the government reacted in a more effective way that in Argentina. But the situation was - again - different: we thought, in the beginning, that the disease was a lot more lethal than what it actually was. It was new and we weren't sure of how fast it would spread. BAH.com: Should Argentina take the same measures? A.M.: No, not all of them. Mexico became isolated at some point. The whole economy was shut down for a week. That is not necessary in Argentina's case. Not at this point however. They closed the schools, which I think is a good thing to do. Shutting down the whole economy was a good decision when you consider the situation Mexico was facing at that moment, but it cost the country a tremendous amount of money (an estimated 40 billion dollars). The impact on the economy was very strong. BAH.com: Argentina had decided to prohibit flights between Mexico and Argentina. A.M.: Well that wasn't very useful, was it? Even the World Health Organization said it when Argentina took this decision. It wasn't right to take this decision. I also think that some of the measures the Argentine government is taking are useless. When we arrived in Argentina, they controlled the whole team in the airport, to see if we were infected with H1N1. It doesn't make sense when people speak about 100 000 cases inside the country. Those efforts could be used somewhere else. BAH.com: What should the government focus on? A.M.: It has to focus on community care. Make sure hospitals can attend all patients. And educate people about what they should and should not do. Use health masks, wash their hands as often as possible, and not touch their mouths, noses and eyes... --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to Mark Crispin Miller's "News From Underground" newsgroup. 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