>The News of Its Death Is Greatly Exaggerated > >Mike Lux > >http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-lux/the-news-of-its-death-is_b_261462.html > >Kent Conrad has repeatedly said there are not enough votes in the >Senate for a public option, >and ><http://campaignsilo.firedoglake.com/2009/08/14/senator-conrad-says-hell-vote-against-the-public-option-in-senate/>now > >says he won't vote for one. HHS Secretary >Sebelius ><http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/08/tpmtv_sunday_show_roundup_wasted_effort.php?ref=fpblg>says > >the public insurance option is not essential. These statements add >to a steadily growing conventional wisdom that the public option is >now dead. > >Not so fast. This fight hasn't even come close to being played out yet. > >Conrad is accurate that there are not currently 60 votes in the >Senate for a public option. But what conventional wisdom ignores is >that there are 64 House members who are unequivocally on record as >saying they will not vote for a health reform bill that has no >public option, way more than enough to take that possibility off the >table. So there are two possibilities right now: > >If both sides of this equation hold tight, no bill passes at all >Something happens to change the dynamics > > >The conventional wisdom says that while it is entirely possible that >the first scenario happens, that if the second scenario happens it >will be because House progressives fold. There seem to be no other >possibilities to all the expert prognosticators. > >Now, I will admit that progressives have been known to fold before, >as Chris >Bowers ><http://www.openleft.com/diary/14662/not-about-whether-obama-supports-the-public-option>wrote > >today. But let me suggest that there are other possibilities here, >scenarios that are actually within the realm of the possible. If >progressives in the House hold their ground, if they hang tough on >the public option, what happens next will go something like this: > >1. The House will find the votes to pass a comprehensive bill >with a public option soon after they get back from August recess. >That will be reasonably easy, because Pelosi will be able to peel >off a reasonable number of Blue Dogs, many of whom have said they >would support a public option, to vote for the bill. > >2. The Senate will find the votes to pass a convoluted, >tortured, unworkable bill, not only with no public option but so >messed up and compromised to be unworkable anyway. This is less >certain than number one, but Democrats will probably find a way to >pass something. > >3. The conference committee will sit for several weeks as >Senators like Conrad say we will never pass a public option, House >progressives says we will never pass something without a public >option, and the White House, Pelosi, Reid, and conference committee >members work out details to try to get something passed. > >At that point, there are a few possibilities. One is that Democratic >leaders just give up and declare health care reform dead. That seems >unlikely to me, given the high stakes. Another possibility is that >House progressives just fold up. That is more likely given recent >history, but given their clear promises and the strong pressure on >them not to, they might just hold this time. So let's assume for the >moment that they do hold strong. Here are a couple of possibilities >for getting a bill passed: > >A. The first is that conservative Senators are given a fig leaf >compromise on the public option, so that they can say to people they >forced a compromise, and then are brought over with all kinds of >other incentives that make them more comfortable with the bigger >bill. > >B. The second is that the conference committee simply breaks the >bill in half, one half being the less controversial part that >everyone agrees upon, the other being the public option and the >financing, both of which can go through the reconciliation process. >Then Obama and Reid muscle the 50 votes they need for support. > >None of this is easy, and none of it is pretty, but having been >through a ton of these kinds of issue fights, both from inside the >Clinton White House and from the outside, I can tell you that all of >this is doable. These kinds of rhetorical logjams happen all the >time, where it looks like the House and the Senate are both >unalterably dug in, and then magically deals get done. On important >bills, effective Presidents and Congressional leaders find some >tough-to-thread-the-needle sweet spot, or they use some >uncomfortable or inelegant legislative tool, and things that matter >can get done. The media and establishment conventional wisdom, which >always tends toward the dire and toward the conservative scenarios, >is sometimes proven wrong. So ye of little faith, do not give up >hope. The worst thing sometimes happens, but not always. Politicians >sometimes sell people out, but not always. Keep fighting for the >public option. > >If you're looking for inspiration, take a page out of Gov. Dean's >book. I co-moderated this part wonky, part political, part fiery >panel (along with the wonderful Texas AFT union organizer Tanya >Tarr) with Gov. Dean, >and ><http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&products_id=288373-1&showVid=true>I'm > >sharing it with you because like me, he still believes hope for a >public option is still alive and worth fighting for. > >You are subscribed to email updates >from <http://huffingtonpost.com/author/index.php?author=mike-lux>Mike >Lux >To stop receiving these emails, you >may ><http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailunsubscribe?k=4Icoj5LvUtMRu-jGBqx1JU_x-aQ>unsubscribe > >now.Email delivery powered by GoogleInbox too >full? ><http://fusion.google.com/add?source=atgs&feedurl=http://feeds.feedburner.com/MikeLuxHuffingtonPost>Google > >Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to Mark Crispin Miller's "News From Underground" newsgroup.
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