*Full Stack
China's Evolving Industrial Policy for AI
*
/Kyle Chan, Gregory Smith, Jimmy Goodrich, Gerard DiPippo, Konstantin F.
Pilz/
Expert Insights
Published Jun 26, 2025
China wants to become the global leader in artificial intelligence (AI)
by 2030.^[1] <https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4012-1.html#fn1>
To achieve this goal, Beijing is deploying industrial policy tools
across the full AI technology stack, from chips to applications. This
expansion of AI industrial policy leads to two questions: What is
Beijing doing to support its AI industry, and will it work?
China’s AI industrial policy will likely accelerate the country’s rapid
progress in AI, particularly through support for research, talent,
subsidized compute, and applications. Chinese AI models are closing the
performance gap with top U.S. models, and AI adoption in China is
growing quickly across sectors, from electric vehicles and robotics to
health care and biotechnology.^[2]
<https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4012-1.html#fn2> Although
most of this growth is driven by innovation at China’s private tech
firms, state support has helped enhance the competitiveness of China’s
AI industry.
However, some aspects of China’s AI industrial policy are wasteful, such
as the inefficient allocation of AI chips to companies.^[3]
<https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4012-1.html#fn3> Other
bottlenecks are hard to overcome, even with massive state support:
U.S.-led export controls on AI chips and the semiconductor manufacturing
equipment needed to produce such chips are limiting the compute
available to Chinese AI developers.^[4]
<https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4012-1.html#fn4> Limited
access to compute forces Chinese companies to make trade-offs between
investing in near-term progress in model development and building
longer-term resilience to sanctions.
Ultimately, despite some waste and conflicting priorities, China’s AI
industrial policy will help Chinese companies compete with U.S. AI firms
by providing talent and capital to an already strong sector. China’s AI
development will likely remain at least a close second place behind that
of the United States, as such development benefits from both private
market competition and the Chinese government’s investments.
[...]
continua qui: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4012-1.html
