Computer guru and futurologist Ray Kurzweil
A leading scientific “futurologist” envisions that the pace at which
scientific advancements are taking place may lead to computers
“matching human intellect by the 2020s.”
American
computer guru Ray Kurzweil reckons that there will be 32 times more
technical progress during the next half century than there was in the
entire 20th century.
While addressing the American Association
for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Boston, he said that machines
would rapidly overtake humans in their intellectual abilities, and
would soon be able to solve some of the most intractable problems of
the 21st century.
He revealed that his prediction was based on
the calculations that computer chips had been doubling in power every
two years for the past half-century.
“The rate is now doubling
every decade, so the next half century will see 32 times more technical
progress than the last half century. Computation, communication,
biological technologies - for example, DNA sequencing - knowledge of
the human brain, and human knowledge in general are all accelerating at
an ever-faster pace, generally doubling price-performance, capacity and
bandwidth every year,” he said.
Kurzweil pointed out that computers had been based on two-dimensional chips
made from silicon to date, but
scientists had developed techniques to create three-dimensional chips with
vastly improved performances.
He
said that 3-D chips could also be constructed from biological
molecules, which may enable them to be miniaturised even more than
metal-based computer chips.
“Three-dimensional, molecular
computing will provide the hardware for human-level ‘strong artificial
intelligence’ by the 2020s. The more important software insights will
be gained in part from the reverse engineering of the human brain, a
process well under way. Already, two dozen regions of the human brain
have been modelled and simulated,” he said.
Kurzweil further
said that computers were on their way to creating a “post-human” world
where a second, intelligent entity would exist alongside people.
“Once machine intelligence matches the range and subtlety of human
intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it
because
of the continuing acceleration of information-based technologies, as
well as the ability of machines to instantly share their knowledge,” he
said.
“We are understanding disease and ageing processes as
information processes, and are gaining the tools to reprogramme them.
Within two decades, we will be in a position to stop and reverse the
progression of disease and ageing resulting in dramatic gains in health
and longevity,” he added.
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