but surely any assumptions you make about a potential future league position must take note of current, recent and past trends (form). Trends are used in pretty much every aspect of our lives to try and help us understand future possible outcomes, whether that be weather, stock markets, mortality, morbidity, commodity prices, house prices etc etc. Whilst our early season form was good and other teams not so good, the recent form of Wolves have given no indication that we are about to improve our current form or even replicate our early season form. As such, it is not unrealistic to assume that we could continue our downward trend, whilst at the same time other teams will continue with their improved form. History tells us that at some point our form should return and the forecast will look better, but the same could be said of the stockmarket; we know that it will improve but we know that it won't be soon because there are no positive trends currently being shown. The same applies to Wolves. Until we see, read, hear evidence that our form is improving, I fear for our promotion aspirations.
________________________________ From: nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswol...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Steven Millward Sent: Monday, 9 February 2009 4:08 PM To: nswolves@googlegroups.com Subject: [NSWolves] Re: Merlin question [sec=unclassified] I take a statistical view that the nth best team over the season will finish nth. The problem with football is that performance is clumpy. We'd be on the same points now if some of the recent losses had been mixed in with the two seven game streaks. It just looks bad when we were better at the start than we are now. My point is I try not to worry about changes in form too much. I still think we are the first or second best team in the league. Better than Brum but perhaps not better than Reading I have faith that we'll average out over the season at a high enough level to get promoted. Of course there are plenty of teams such as Cardiff and Watford that have proven me wrong, although I don't think either of them were at the top at this stage having been so for four months. I'm responsing to your point below. I'm wondering if Mick is indeed statistically more clumpy as a Wolves manager or we just despair about poor runs of form. I might investigate. 2009/2/9 Morris, Lee SGT <lee.mor...@defence.gov.au> I said a while back that it was all or nothing with MM. At the moment its the latter...Good job we had a bit of a lead otherwise it would be all over. Things need to turn around quickly, but we have some tough games coming up. ________________________________ From: nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswol...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Steven Millward Sent: Monday, 9 February 2009 12:44 To: nswolves@googlegroups.com Subject: [NSWolves] Re: Merlin question I imagine there are similar comments being made by Birmingham and Reading fans. We're lucky at the moment that they are playing badly too. The cashing pack are closing in. At least we don't have Tony Adams as manager. He said on Friday that he had the full support of the board, the players and most of the fans. Today he'll be sacked. Is he so stupid that he genuinely though he was going to keep his job? Why do football managers do this again and again? Is it something to do with their contracts that they have to seem surprised when they are sacked so that they get the full contract paid out? 2009/2/9 Marcus Chantry <marcus.chan...@macquarie.com> we've got as much chance of winning automatic promotion as England have of winning the Ashes back this year (which is something close to absolutely F all). ________________________________ From: nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswol...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Rog & Rita Sent: Monday, 9 February 2009 10:24 AM To: nswolves@googlegroups.com Subject: [NSWolves] Merlin question Was he in Jamaica over the weekend advising the England cricket team? The information contained in this email is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you may not disclose or use the information in this email in any way and should destroy any copies. Macquarie does not guarantee the integrity of any emails or attached files. The views or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the views or opinions of Macquarie. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Pig's pudding - it's a mon's dinner aer kid -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
