Anomolies are to be expected. It's part of life. Most things in life follow what is called a normal distribution, often known as the bell curve. You get a lot of cases around the average and then a few outliers. The outliers could be caused by a range of factors but it's perfectly reasonable to expect it. The shorter the timeframe the more chance of variance to the normal distribution, as I explained with my coin toss example earlier.
Maybe Marcus can get an actuary to look at it. On 20 December 2011 14:58, Paul Crowe <pcr...@contechengineering.com> wrote: > Voodoo then. However, I have backed them up with Steve’s figures, 2 > anomaly’s from last season and at least 4 anomaly’s so far this season.*** > * > > ** ** > > Not very conclusive at all!**** > > ** ** > > Paul Crowe**** > > Sales Manager - Asia Pacific**** > > **** > > ConTech (Sydney Office)**** > > **** > > PO Box 3517**** > > Rhodes Waterside**** > > Rhodes NSW 2138**** > > Tel: 02 97396636 Fax: 02 97396542**** > > Mob: 0406009562**** > > Email: pcr...@contechengineering.com**** > > Website: www.contechengineering.com**** > > ** ** > > *From:* nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] *On > Behalf Of *LEESE Matthew > *Sent:* Tuesday, 20 December 2011 2:35 PM > > *To:* nswolves@googlegroups.com > *Subject:* RE: [NSWolves] Welcome Back Matthew**** > > ** ** > > If you can't back up your claims with numbers Paul they can only be one of > two things - gut feel or voodoo. Which is it?**** > > ** ** > ------------------------------ > > *From:* nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] *On > Behalf Of *Paul Crowe > *Sent:* Tuesday, 20 December 2011 2:30 PM > *To:* nswolves@googlegroups.com > *Subject:* RE: [NSWolves] Welcome Back Matthew**** > > Steve,**** > > ** ** > > It is not my gut feel. I was using your figures from last season and also > applied them to the season so far.**** > > ** ** > > I am not convinced, please send me your Professor’s spreadsheet so I can > study your claims?**** > > ** ** > > Thanks in advance **** > > ** ** > > Dopameine Deficient Crowe**** > > ** ** > > Paul Crowe**** > > Sales Manager - Asia Pacific**** > > **** > > ConTech (Sydney Office)**** > > **** > > PO Box 3517**** > > Rhodes Waterside**** > > Rhodes NSW 2138**** > > Tel: 02 97396636 Fax: 02 97396542**** > > Mob: 0406009562**** > > Email: pcr...@contechengineering.com**** > > Website: www.contechengineering.com**** > > ** ** > > *From:* nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] *On > Behalf Of *Steven Millward > *Sent:* Tuesday, 20 December 2011 9:23 AM > *To:* nswolves@googlegroups.com > *Subject:* Re: [NSWolves] Welcome Back Matthew**** > > ** ** > > Yes but Paul, a professor of economics did the analysis over 20 years and > found an even stronger relationship. The facts are there. If you have > similarly strong facts to dispute it then please share them but your gut > feel doesn't count.**** > > **** > > Mick outperformed resources, hence Wolves are in the top half of that > table. **** > > **** > > There is random error when you look at football over a short term due to > refereeing decision, who plays who etc.**** > > **** > > The fact that there are only two anomolies shows how strong the > relationship is**** > > > > **** > > On 20 December 2011 08:00, Paul Crowe <pcr...@contechengineering.com> > wrote:**** > > Morning Steve,**** > > **** > > Are you winding us up? Or do you seriously believe “There's no room to > say that management is important and Mick is a bad manager because the > facts don't support it”.**** > > **** > > Even in your listed figures for last season there are some major anomaly’s > like West Brom (difference 8) and West Ham (difference 12). The reason the > Baggies are doing well is because they changed their Manager mid-last > season and now have a good one. The reason West Ham went down is because > they had a bad Manager and persevered with him.**** > > **** > > Look at West Ham now, they changed their Manager and are doing very well > in the Chump League with the majority of Player’s who were relegated.**** > > **** > > If you look at the teams around us this season, your table would read:**** > > **** > > **** > > Team League Rank Wage Rank Difference**** > > Sunderland 16 8 8**** > > Wolves 17 18 1**** > > Wigan 18 16 2** > ** > > Blackburn 19 12 7**** > > Bolton 20 14 6** > ** > > **** > > Note: I have used your wage ranking figures from last season. **** > > **** > > Your theory just doesn’t stack up. Also if you throw in Norwich (current > Difference 10) and Swansea (current Difference 8) for this season, who > arguably have a lower wage structure than us, then your theory starts to > fall apart! Granted the season still has a long way to go but I bet you a > carton of beer both these teams will finish above us. Hope you like > Elliott’s Toohey’s Red.**** > > **** > > **** > > Norwich 9 19 10** > ** > > Swansea 12 20 8**** > > **** > > My theory is that the reason teams like Norwich and Swansea are doing > better than us is because they are trying to play attractive attacking > football, are coached well and have a better Manager. **** > > **** > > The Manager is in charge of the coaching staff and determines the tactics > for his team, to advocate this has no bearing on results and the position > of your team in the League is pure bunkum!**** > > **** > > Another one to leave you with, why back in the 90’s and early 00’s, when > we were the top wage payer’s in the Championship, did it take us so long to > get promoted?**** > > **** > > Regards**** > > **** > > Paul.**** > > **** > > Paul Crowe**** > > Sales Manager - Asia Pacific**** > > **** > > ConTech (Sydney Office)**** > > **** > > PO Box 3517**** > > Rhodes Waterside**** > > Rhodes NSW 2138**** > > Tel: 02 97396636 Fax: 02 97396542**** > > Mob: 0406009562**** > > Email: pcr...@contechengineering.com**** > > Website: www.contechengineering.com**** > > **** > > *From:* nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] *On > Behalf Of *Steven Millward **** > > > *Sent:* Tuesday, 20 December 2011 6:31 AM**** > > *To:* nswolves@googlegroups.com > *Subject:* Re: [NSWolves] Welcome Back Matthew**** > > **** > > I've taken my points on to Molineux Mix if anyone's interested > http://molineuxmix.co.uk/vb/showthread.php?t=66061 > > Here's some more interesting data in the table below. > > League rank is the position that the team finished in the league > Wage rank is the position forecast by wages > > You'll notice that wages are a great predicitor of league position. > 10 teams are within one position of their prediction. > 15 teams are within two positions of their prediction > 18 teams are within three positions of their prediction. > > I've sorted the table by the last column which is the difference between > the league and wage ranking. The teams at the top are the ones that > seemingly outperformed their resources. > > You'll notice all the "good" managers are near the top of the list: > Hodgson - Pulis - Redknapp - Ferguson - *McCARTHY* > > The way I see if you can say that *either* management is important and > Mick is a good manager *or* management is unimportant. > > There's no room to say that managment is important and Mick is a bad > manager because the facts don't support it. > > Team..........League Rank...Wage Rank...Difference > West Brom..........11..............19................8 > Fulham................8...............11.......... ......3 > Stoke................13...............15.......... ......2 > Spurs..................5................7......... .......2 > Man Utd..............1................3............... ..2 > Wolves..............17...............18........... .....1 > Blackpool...........19...............20........... .....1 > Arsenal...............4.................5......... .......1 > Everton..............7.................8.......... ......1 > Wigan...............16...............16........... .....0 > Newcastle..........12...............12............ ....0 > Bolton...............14...............14.......... ......0 > Chelsea..............2.................1.......... .....-1 > Birmingham.........18...............17............ ..-1 > Man City.............3.................2.............. .-1 > Liverpool.............6.................4......... ......-2 > Sunderland.........10................8............ ....-2 > Aston villa...........9.................6...............-3 > Blackburn...........15...............12........... ....-3 > West Ham..........20................8...............-12**** > > On 19 December 2011 15:03, Paul Crowe <pcr...@contechengineering.com> > wrote:**** > > Hughes’s Granny would be better than MM!**** > > **** > > Maybe we should just enlist a local Gypsy as replacement for MM, as our > teams performance depends on luck and other dubiously explained factors, > nothing at all to do with the Manager and his coaching skills?**** > > **** > > Paul Crowe**** > > Sales Manager - Asia Pacific**** > > **** > > ConTech (Sydney Office)**** > > **** > > PO Box 3517**** > > Rhodes Waterside**** > > Rhodes NSW 2138**** > > Tel: 02 97396636 Fax: 02 97396542**** > > Mob: 0406009562**** > > Email: pcr...@contechengineering.com**** > > Website: www.contechengineering.com**** > > **** > > *From:* nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] *On > Behalf Of *Steven Millward > *Sent:* Monday, 19 December 2011 2:52 PM**** > > > *To:* nswolves@googlegroups.com > *Subject:* Re: [NSWolves] Welcome Back Matthew**** > > **** > > Hold the front page. What a scoop!**** > > On 19 December 2011 11:09, Paul Hart <wholiga...@gmail.com> wrote:**** > > I spoke to my mate last night in Penn he heard Hughes was there. **** > > **** > > Well just have to wait and see. > > Sent from my iPhone**** > > > On 19/12/2011, at 11:05 AM, Steven Millward <millward....@gmail.com> > wrote:**** > > He dared to make a positive comment about Wolves and the filter kicked > him out. I've hacked it. > > Where is that rumour from?**** > > On 19 December 2011 11:00, Paul Hart <wholiga...@gmail.com> wrote:**** > > > Why were you bannned Matthew ? > Did you dare to ask for the head of MM > > Has anybody else heard the rumour > That Mark Hughes was at the Stoke > game ??? > > > Sent from my iPhone > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > **** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > **** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > **** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > ** ** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > [image: Logo]**** > > Before printing, please consider the environment**** > > IMPORTANT NOTICE: This e-mail and any attachment to it are intended only > to be read or used by the named addressee. It is confidential and may > contain legally privileged information. No confidentiality or privilege is > waived or lost by any mistaken transmission to you. Roads and Maritime > Services (RMS) is not responsible for any unauthorised alterations to this > e-mail or attachment to it. Views expressed in this message are those of > the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of RMS. If you > receive this e-mail in error, please immediately delete it from your system > and notify the sender. You must not disclose, copy or use any part of this > e-mail if you are not the intended recipient.**** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out.**** > > -- > Boo! Thick Mick Out. > -- Boo! Thick Mick Out.
