Hello all, Sorry this is somewhat belated, but here's my usual follow-up to Ron Pittaway's great Winter Finch Forecast. This is much more focused on just NY! Again, a big thanks goes out to Ron for his forecast!
PINE SISKIN: I expect moderate to perhaps large numbers throughout much of NY, Northeast and down the Appalachians. I don't expect big numbers at feeders (they will be in the woods), and numbers will build as we head into January-February with widespread nesting to follow March-May. The Hemlock crop this year is the best I've seen it in 12+ years. Siskins love hemlock!! They also use spruce quite frequently, both natives and non-natives -- so, they will be common in state forests in southern and central NY as well. White pine, Tamarack and N. White Cedar are used too, but they seem to stay away from the harder pines like Black, Scotts, Pitch, Red etc. I expect there to be larger numbers of breeding siskins in NY and the Northeast compared to the 2006- 07 breeding invasion. REDPOLLS: I don't expect any here in NY except for a passing flock perhaps somewhere across the North Country. There could be a few more here and there as you head northward. We had our redpoll year last year. RED CROSSBILL: I expect small to perhaps moderate numbers with numbers peaking in February-April. Look for nesting Jan-April across northern part of state (and New England), and from February-June southern part of the state. Small to perhaps moderate widespread numbers of nesting Type 1 will be fairly common at some state forests in central and southern NY Feb-June. Type 10 will also be widespread in small numbers as they already are in the northern parts of the state into New England. Some type 10 will mix in with Type 1 in central NY as well (Chris Wood and I heard one back in July in Pharsalia). Type 2 will be found here and there in the state as they usually are most years (they are usually less common than Type 10). The big question will be, will we get the bigger influx of Type 3 with additional Type 10 come December-March. I suspect we will get a pulse of Type 3 and 10, but how big the pulse will be the question. In upstate NY and New England, look for smaller billed Types 3 and 10 feeding on hemlock and spruces, and Type 2 more on pines. However, there can be great dietary overlap here in the Northeast, especially as we get late in the season. Look for Type 1 in Norway spruce come March-June. Look for nesting Type 1 down the Appalachians as well. In the central and southern Appalachians, focus searches in white pine and hemlock November-February, and then focus searches in red, pitch, and shortleaf pine March-May. Overall, I expect this years Red Crossbills numbers to be similar to the 2006-07 NY invasion, which was a moderately sized invasion. WHITE-WINGED CROSSBILL: As we go forth, I expect White-winged Crossbills to slowly infiltrate the state with numbers peaking January-April. Look for small to perhaps moderate numbers of widespread nesting birds across northern NY (and into New England) starting January. If the invasion is big, we could get a spillover of a few into state lands in central NY like we have in past years --this wouldn't happen until January-February. They mainly keep to spruce species during nesting years. The spruce crop is excellent on both native and non-native spruces across the state --they seem to prefer native spruces though. Food is too widespread for this invasion to be like 2000-01, but it will be as big if not bigger than the small 2006-07 nesting invasion. EVENING GROSBEAK: In following Ron's forecast -- will we get our first back to back invasion in NY since 1990/1991-1991/1992. Spruce budworm is on the increase, and so Evening Grosbeak numbers are in the rise to some degree too. There have been subtle signs of this for the past 2-3 years. Will we get a spillover of birds into central NY like we do most invasion years? The white ash and boxelder crops are quite good, and so preferred wild food will be available for Evening Grosbeaks if they do show. With high sunflower prices though, will anyone have their feeders filled with sunflower this year? Time will tell. PINE GROSBEAK: I don't expect any here in central NY, but there will probably be a few in Northern NY...... but they will be hard to find. Crops on fruiting trees are generally quite good. PURPLE FINCH: As is typical during great spruce crop years, I expect moderate wintering (higher than normal) numbers in NY and New England this year. Also, given the white ash crop is great, we should see some here in central NY during winter as well. Like the Purple Finch, Am. Goldfinch numbers are also usually quite good in the north when spruce and hemlock crops are good. I suspect both species will be found in lower than usual numbers to the south of NY. BOHEMIAN WAXWING: We had a very nice invasion last year, so I don't expect a big invasion this year. However, this bird has become annual in areas like the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys across the northern third of the state. I expect a few in these areas. If anyone gets recordings of Red Crossbills, please contact me at: m...@cornell.edu You can record birds now with Iphones....at least recordings that can be analyzed. cheers, Matt Young -------------------------------------------------------------------- mail2web.com What can On Demand Business Solutions do for you? http://link.mail2web.com/Business/SharePoint -- Cayugabirds-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html 2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds 3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
