There's an interesting paper dealing with just this effect here:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289706654_Warmer_Summers_and_Drier_Winters_Correlate_with_More_Winter_Vagrant_Purple_Gallinules_Porphyrio_martinicus_in_the_North_Atlantic_Region

Good Birding and Vagrant Speculating!
-Doug Gochfeld



On Tue, Feb 13, 2018 at 6:52 AM Shaibal Mitra <shaibal.mi...@csi.cuny.edu>
wrote:

> Wow, this is really amazing. The tight date range really looks like a
> discrete flight of some sort. If these were Summer Tanagers hitting those
> sites in mid April, we'd call it a slingshot. Is there any reason to think
> that southern populations of Purple Gallinule are undertaking long distance
> flights to the north in mid January?
>
> Shai Mitra
> Bay Shore
> ________________________________________
> From: bounce-122283698-11143...@list.cornell.edu [
> bounce-122283698-11143...@list.cornell.edu] on behalf of Paul R Sweet [
> sw...@amnh.org]
> Sent: Monday, February 12, 2018 3:27 PM
> To: NYSBIRDS-L
> Subject: [nysbirds-l] Another Long Island Purple Gallinule (not chaseable)
>
> A routine trip to collect salvaged birds from a Long Island rehabber
> yielded Long Island’s 3rd Purple Gallinule of the winter. This new specimen
> was picked up on 14 January in Rockville Centre and died 2 days later
>
> As a reminder the other birds were 13 January Manorville, 16 January
> Southampton.
>
> Details will be submitted to NYSARC
>
> Paul Sweet
> Collection Manager
> Department of Ornithology
> American Museum of Natural History
> Central Park West at 79th Street
> New York, NY 10024
>
> Tel: 212 769 5780
> Cell: 718 757 5941
>
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