Dorian likely will pass well southeast of LI Friday night to Saturday. There
will be northerly winds from the surface to at least 30,000 feet AGL Saturday
morning. In the lowest few thousand feet winds will be primarily north to
northeast. I am not sure what this means for LI exactly, but the deep
northerly winds no doubt will bring a lot of birds from Canada. I wonder if
some migrants would head south over the ocean and then turn back and head north
or west as they likely will avoid the storm. It could be interesting along the
coast even if we don't see typical hurricane birds. Wish I was on the island
Saturday....
Dave Nicosia
On Tuesday, September 3, 2019, 07:57:25 PM CDT, Shaibal Mitra
<shaibal.mi...@csi.cuny.edu> wrote:
The earliest models for Dorian’s track indicated a likelihood that the storm
would track almost due north and pass to the west of Long Island—or at least
parts of Long Island. This is the scenario that is likely to produce tropical
terns and other Gulf Stream birds onshore on Long Island. With many people
talking about Dorian and buzzing over the potential for storm birds, I’ve
pulled out maps and bird data for several storms that passed west of or across
Long Island near this date: David (1979), Fran (1996), Floyd (1999), Ernesto
(2006), and Irene (2011)—all of these were productive for storm birds.
For better or worse, at this point, it appears that Dorian will almost
certainly whip out to sea to the south and east of us, as so many tropical
systems do. Storms of this sort often interrupt the trans-oceanic migrations of
species that would otherwise pass over us (various shorebirds, jaegers, Black
Tern, etc.), but they do not bring tropical terns, etc.
(Note: my obvious desire to see storm birds has NO influence on the weather and
is not responsible for any harm or good wrought by any storm; the storm will do
what it does, and we may simply wish to be prepared for the ornithological as
well as other consequences).
Shai Mitra
Bay Shore
1979 Major Hurricane David
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1979/Major-Hurricane-David
>From Richard L. Ferren, summarizing effects in Rhode Island: “A minimum of 62
>Sooty Terns, at least five Bridled Terns, and a Brown Noddy passed Point
>Judith heading northeastward in the very late afternoon hours, with additional
>Sooties audibly passing the point after dark. Other Sooties were found dead at
>Napatree Point and seen exhausted inland at Kingston, while eight
>oystercatchers appeared at Napatree. More Sandwich Terns were seen the next
>day. Five Royal, 16 Black, and one Gull-billed Tern, and three Black
>Skimmers were also seen. A flock of 68 Red and six Red-necked Phalaropes at
>Galilee, and a Red-necked Phalarope and seven Black Terns were seen inland at
>Richmond the day of the storm; eight oystercatchers at Napatree the day after
>was then a large number. A final total of seven Sandwich Terns was a maximum
>count for the state at the time.”
1996 Major Hurricane Fran
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/Major-Hurricane-Fran
morning: https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S20370719
morning: https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S20370663
evening: https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S20467354
next day: https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S20467579
1999 Major Hurricane Floyd
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/Major-Hurricane-Floyd
https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S24442955
https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S27002826
2006 Hurricane Ernesto
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2006/Hurricane-Ernesto
https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S24420867
2011 Hurricane Irene
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2011/Hurricane-Irene
https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S8737686
https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S8737724
https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S8737900
https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S8737940
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