Had I known this was going to be an issue, I would have counted the shorebirds at Cupsogue. Naa, that's not my thing. I could say there were a lot, but that's a relative thing (to previous years). I certainly didn't think shortage.
In regard to Jamaica Bay, I go back to when Arthur Morris and then David Mizrahi were counting them in the 1980's+++. The conventional wisdom back then was that shorebird numbers built up on what we generally consider off winds, and then dropped significantly with a cold front passage (the opposite of songbirds). We can all remember summers with prolonged heat waves, when cold fronts were long in coming. That's not the case this year (one just went through today). The next weather issue is the rain that left little shoreline last week. That's not good for keeping shorebirds around. Then there's the Peregrine factor. How much of a factor is that in shorebirds pulling out? I think some of us have noted in recent years occasions when Peregrines put the shorebirds up and many didn't return even at high tide. Data (e-bird or other) would be interesting regarding the past frequency of Peregrines on the East Pond - obviously there was a post DDT low point for them). Then perhaps there are effects of Sandy that we can't see. I discussed these issues with people on the pond last year and opined that it seemed to me that individual birds weren't staying as long. If so, that certainly contributes to inconsistent shorebirding. Steve Walter From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Angus Wilson Sent: Thursday, July 24, 2014 5:57 PM To: NYSBIRDS-L Subject: Re: [nysbirds-l] Shorebird update These impressions of low shorebird numbers from different spots along Long Island are interesting and thank you all for sharing. Data collecting tools like eBird are well suited to quantifying these impressions if they hold up, and this is one reason why observers should make the effect to carefully enter counts or best estimates with their checklists and to correctly record their effort time so that meaningful comparisons can be made. Just imagine if we had lots of eBird data over the past 100-200 years, I think the extent of the changes in bird populations at individual sites would be staggering (and sobering). Just to add to the previous good suggestions, the observed paucity of shorebirds could simply be due to weather patterns. In past summers we've seen shorebirds, especially adult shorebirds, come through the coastal areas in obvious waves and often departing synchronously as well. So it could be that a succession of weather systems over the past few days and weeks have conspired in such a way that fewer shorebirds have reached Long Island than typical. Alternatively the weather could have made it easier for birds to push right through without pause. This is probably less likely because its more likely that the marshes and shallow bays being surveyed are intentional stopover points. One way to address this might be ask if observers in other parts of eastern North America (central NY, Cape Cod, Delaware Bay, Bay of Fundy etc) or even northeastern South America are seeing higher or lower numbers than they expect for the date. A delayed arctic summer might be reflected in low numbers across a wide arc of migration stopover points. If something has happened to the adults then we are in real trouble. This could happen if they arrived on their breeding grounds before the snow and ice has cleared sufficiently for them to feed. I've not heard that this was a wide scale issue this year but I don't follow these things closely. Wide fluctuations in the numbers of juvenile shorebirds from year to year is well documented and broadly linked to several causative factors, most notably the ups and downs of lemming populations. There shouldn't be too many juveniles coming through now but they will be here fairly soon. Cheers, Angus Wilson New York City -- NYSbirds-L List Info: <http://www.northeastbirding.com/NYSbirdsWELCOME> Welcome and Basics <http://www.northeastbirding.com/NYSbirdsRULES> Rules and Information <http://www.northeastbirding.com/NYSbirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave Archives: The Mail Archive <http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/maillist.html> <http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NYSBirds-L> Surfbirds BirdingOnThe.Net <http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NYSB.html> Please submit your observations to <http://ebird.org/content/ebird/> eBird! -- -- NYSbirds-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NYSbirdsWELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NYSbirdsRULES http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NYSbirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/maillist.html 2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NYSBirds-L 3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NYSB.html Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
