For the past several years I've focused my spring season reports in North 
American Birds on the curious spike in our Region of records of vagrants and 
half-hardies during March. This generally under-appreciated pattern is not only 
very well-documented but also, I argue, potentially a very significant 
indicator of how birds are responding to our changing environment.

The idea is that as temperatures increase and day length increases rapidly 
during March, birds that have over-wintered in favorable micro-environments 
(often involving feeders) begin to move around. Many of these birds were 
undetected or at least unreported through the winter, but their March movements 
increase the likelihood that they will cross paths with birders.

The basic pattern is very recognizable regardless of whether a particular 
winter survivor belongs to an extralimital species (like Rufous Hummingbird, 
Varied Thrush, Painted Bunting, or Black-headed Grosbeak) or a regularly 
occurring breeder/migrant that normally winters far to the south (like 
Orange-crowned Warbler, Northern Parula, or Rose-breasted Grosbeak): if people 
were aware of the bird through the winter, it abruptly disappears during March; 
at the same time, previously undetected birds begin to be reported as they roam 
around. The parallel between vagrant species and half-hardies implies that the 
two groups might be doing something similar--and that the "vagrants" might be 
doing more than being lost.

Anyway, regarding the following chestnut, I'd say that the accumulation of data 
strongly supports the over-wintering hypothesis.

From: Shaibal Mitra [[email protected]]
Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 12:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Bay Shore, Suffolk County

Pat Lindsay just called with news of a young male Rose-breasted Grosbeak 
singing at Gardiner County Park, which is essentially due north across Great 
South Bay from Fire Island Lighthouse. Her description rules out Black-headed 
Grosbeak, but the question of whether this bird wintered locally or just 
arrived from afar can probably only be settled if other Neotropical 
Cardinalids, tanagers, etc. show up coastally today or tomorrow.

Shai Mitra
Bay Shore, NY

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