"Ah....Mbah bisa aja...hehehe" --- On Thu, 11/20/08, jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: From: jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Iseng2x kalkulasi BUMI pakai simple DCF To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Thursday, November 20, 2008, 1:30 AM
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Vic" <victor_sperandeo@ ...> wrote: > > welcome 500 perak. > Pak Victor, Liat dulu ASUMSI yg digunakan oleh pak Tirta: -> > Net income 2008 = $172.42 mil ????? Sedangkan Estimate Net Income 2008 sekitar $800, jadi pak Tirta asumsinya kekecilan 800/172 = 4,65 kali Jadi bukan 500 tapi 4,65 x 500 = 2325 > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "tirta858" <tirta858@> wrote: > > > > Barusan saja saya kalkulasi BUMI using simple DCF calculation. > > > > Datanya saya ambil dari > > > > http://www.reuters. com/finance/ stocks/incomeSta tement? > > stmtType=INC& perType=ANN& symbol=BUMI. JK > > > > Saya pakai angka yang agak conservative saja. > > > > Net income saya ambil dari permulaan tahun 2004(first positive > > earning) lalu net income growth saya pakai tahun 2004 dan 2005 yaitu > > 12.2%(pre comodity euphoria). FV net income(2008) = 1.122^4 x 108.8 = > > $172.42mil (sangat conservative compare to actual 2007 $789mil) > > > > Assumptionnya : > > > > Exchange rate = Rp 10,000 > > Net income 2008 = $172.42 mil > > 1-5 year growth = 12.2% > > Terminal = 3% > > Shares out = 19,404 mil > > WACC = 17% > > > > Plug in the numbers: > > > > IV = Rp 922 > > IV with 40% margin of safety = Rp 553 > > > > Comments are welcome :) > > >
