terima kasih Pak ! --- On Fri, 12/12/08, hendra_buj...@yahoo.com <hendra_buj...@yahoo.com> wrote:
From: hendra_buj...@yahoo.com <hendra_buj...@yahoo.com> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Fw: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Banks: Looking for vulnerability-a top-down and bottom-up analysis To: "Alumni Atmajaya" <alumnife...@yahoogroups.com>, "EMF 342" <emf-342-mi-2...@yahoogroups.com>, "ECA 310" <mi_s...@yahoogroups.com>, "Obrolan Bandar" <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Date: Friday, December 12, 2008, 12:39 AM Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT From: psukan...@yahoo. com Date: Fri, 12 Dec 2008 05:00:11 +0000 Subject: Fw: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Banks: Looking for vulnerability- a top-down and bottom-up analysis From: "Maya Faridatul Aini" Date: Fri, 12 Dec 2008 10:41:02 +0700 To: <Undisclosed- Recipient: ;><Invalid address> Subject: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Banks: Looking for vulnerability- a top-down and bottom-up analysis Looking for vulnerability—a top-down and bottom-up analysis 𐂄 Indonesia banks under stress With the worst of the liquidity issue generally believed to be behind us, the market is focussing on Indonesia banks’ NPLs and capital adequacy. In this report, we consider whether the banks are sound, and if a systemic banking crisis is likely. 𐂄 Constructive top-down view, bottom-up stress test on 94 banks We do not expect a banking crisis in Indonesia as: 1) there was no credit bubble in Indonesia; 2) there is no dependence on international wholesale funding; and 3) the banks are in a strong capital position and have low leverage. We stress-tested 94 Indonesia banks, representing 85% of the industry, excluding foreign banks. 𐂄 Result: tolerance is for 6-8% higher NPLs This would be an increase from the 3.9% industry-wide NPLs (as at September 2008) to around 12%, which we think is unlikely given the 25% rupiah devaluation and 5% increase in lending rates. The big banks—Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Bank Central Asia, Bank Danamon and Bank Mandiri—have a tolerance up to 12-17% NPLs, according to our analysis. 𐂄 However, it is too early to be going after risk; BRI is our top pick As NPLs have yet to increase or peak in Indonesia, we think it is two to three quarters too early to go into banks with weaker balance sheets. Our top pick is Bank Rakyat Indonesia, which we believe is undervalued and defensive. We downgrade our ratings for Bank Danamon and Bank Mandiri, despite their valuations, because we think the operating environment will be tough in 2009. We have a Sell rating on Bank Central Asia, due to our interest rate view and valuation, which implies its strong qualities are already priced in. No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG. Version: 7.5.552 / Virus Database: 270.9.17/1844 - Release Date: 12/11/2008 8:58 PM __________ NOD32 3549 (20081023) Information_ _________ This message was checked by NOD32 antivirus system. http://www.eset. com No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG. Version: 7.5.552 / Virus Database: 270.9.17/1844 - Release Date: 12/11/2008 8:58 PM
