Pak JT, Jadi mendingan kita gak usah lihat berita aja kali ya ? cukup liat chart aja ?
-toto- On Wed, Dec 24, 2008 at 9:06 AM, JsxTrader <jsxtra...@yahoo.com> wrote: > I knew it..., I knew it…, you see guys, kerjaan BD emang cuma > memanipulasi screen and news…, kerjaan satunya lagi cuma.., akumulasi, > markup, and distribusi…, hehehe…, dasar.. > > > > One thing.., volume ngga bisa bo'ong…, yes it can be manipulated too.., > tapi costly dan butuh effort besar…, tidak semudah memanipulasi harga. > > > > Regards, > > JT > > > > *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: > obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Joe Grunk > *Sent:* 24 Desember 2008 8:57 > *To:* sa...@yahoogroups.com; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > *Subject:* [obrolan-bandar] Fw: Macq sales note - PGAS -- false alarm? > > > > > *Subject:* FW: PGAS -- false alarm? > > > > > > PGAS hit limit down for third consecutive days this morning, before closing > the first session flat from yesterday close. CFO Mr. Hendi Priosantoso held > a conference call at 11:30am, which could have explained the 10% share price > recovery by mid day. Overall the call yielded comforting outcome, accumulate > below Rp1,800. Key take-aways: > > > > *1.** No plan to cut gas distribution selling price. * > > > > But Mr. Hendi also made it clear that the market should not expect any > price increase either in 2009 (vs. Macquarie assumption of a 10% hike in > 4Q09), as communicated to the house of representative. He said: > "No plan to modify selling price in 2009, as the policy is driven by long > term supply contract with fixed price arrangement." "None of our customers > have switched to diesel thus far" > > > > "Have not seen any specific program or request for PGAS to lower gas price > from Indonesia's chamber of commerce (Kadin), nor any calculation that > suggest the need to lower gas price" > > > > "On management calculation, a US$25/bbl crude would be equal to > US$8.60/mmbtu gas price (vs. current selling price of US$5.50/mmbtu). Based > on a current unsubsidized diesel price of Rp6,300/liter, the equivalent gas > price should be around US$15.80/mmbtu". > > > > *2. No pressure to change US$ pricing policy.* > > > > "The current management has never pegged or received payment in IDR, and > all customers have stand-by LCs for all sales contracts". > > > > "Non performing receivable is less than 1%". > > > > *3. Arbitration dispute with Siemens Pte Ltd is quite small, amounting to > less than US$4.0mn. * > > > > "We regret to have ommitted the size of the arbitration claim when we > submit the disclosure to Bapepam". > > > > *4. Happy with the distribution volume development.* > > > > "Average throughput is 585 mmscfd by end November. Still targetting 580-600 > mmscfd for FY08. Giving a wide ranged guidance of 700-800mmscfd for FY09, > around 730mmscfd of which is contracted but subject to execution success". > > > > "Signs of economic slowdown, as some customers have asked for a lowering of > contractual volume (less than 5% overall). But any hiccups have been offset > by a surging demand from the power sector". > > > > *My take:* Adam Worthington/Albert Saputro's assumptions on PGAS, which > factored-in a 10% hike in 4Q09, look a tad optimistic. Attached is a > spreadsheet that outlines EPS and DCF outcome with & without gas price > increase assumption. Base case DCF is Rp3,100, with worst case DCF of > Rp2,000 without gas price increase assumption. > > NOTICE > > The information contained in this email is confidential. If you are not the > intended recipient, you must not disclose or use the information in this > email in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by > return email and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of > any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made > to them by any other person. > > > > No virus found in this incoming message. > Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com > Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.0/1861 - Release Date: 12/22/2008 > 11:23 AM > > > ------------------------------ > > Wajib militer di Indonesia? > Temukan jawabannya di Yahoo! Answers! > > No virus found in this incoming message. > Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com > Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.0/1861 - Release Date: 12/23/2008 > 12:08 PM > >
