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Biar seru!!!
Subject: FW: CLSA
INDO: Indo gov allowed QTel to own 65% of Indosat without have to spin off its
fixed line business
Good news
finally,
Chairman of Bapepam
quoted saying that he has received
official letter from government (BKPM, Investment Coordinating Board) stated
that Qatar Telecom is allowed to have 65% ownership in Indosat without have to
spin off its fixed line business.
Please see comment from our
analyst Wilianto below:
Indosat is still unable to confirm
the news and said they have received nothing yet.
This means that QTel will launch
tender offer for additional 24.2% of Indosat at the price of Rp7,388 per share.
QTel bought 40.8% Indosat from Asia Mobile Holding (Temasek) in Jun08 and is
required to do a tender offer up to the ownership
limitation.
Assuming
Indosat to trade similar to Telkom valuation of 12x PER 2009CL, the implied
value pre-tender offer will be Rp6,000 per
share.
Indosat - tender
offer calculation
QTel ownership
allowed
65.0%
Qtel current
ownership
40.8%
Tender offer
Qtel
24.2%
Government stakes (will not
sell)
14.3%
Free float
44.9%
Tender /free
float
53.9%
Current Indosat share price (the close of
22 Dec 08)
4,950
#of shares
owned
100
Investment
cost
495,000
Tender offer
price
7,388
# shares sold at
tender
53.9
Proceed from
tender
398,195
Original investment
costs
495,000
Less proceed from
tender
398,195
Net investment cost post
tender
96,805
Remaining shares
owned
46.1
Implied price for the remaing shares
(breakeven price post tender)
2,100
EPS Indosat
2009CL
356
PER of effective remaining
shares
5.9
Implied current price based on
valuation multiple of Indosat post tender.
PER 09CL post
tender
Price post
tender
Implied current
price
5.6
2,000
4,904
7.0
2,500
5,135
8.4
3,000
5,365
9.8
3,500
5,596
11.2
4,000
5,826
12.0
4,272
5,951
12.6
4,500
6,057
14.0
5,000
6,287
15.4
5,500
6,518
Best
regards,
Wuddy
Warsono, CFA
CLSA Indonesia | Head of Sales
Phone:
(62-21) 573 9460
Toll Free - HK: 800 938 000
Toll Free - SIN: 800 621
1104
Toll Free - US: 800 460 2581
wuddy.wars...@clsa.com
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