Research Today: Downgrading Danamon to SELL
We have been negative on Danamon (BDMN IJ) for a while now. Nico has had a
negative rating on this name since April 2008, one of the earliest on the
street. Great call!
He puts Danamon on a SELL and downgrades earnings by 11-16% for 2008-10. New
TP Rp2,300/share or 1x PBV gives 21% downside. Derivatives transactions have
exploded to 4x the bank’s total equity in just two years.
These options tend to have offsetting positions, so Danamon’s exposure to
market risk is limited. However the increased volatility will not bode well
for the bank’s counterparty and more defaults may follow which in turn result
in more losses for Danamon.
Major Points
· BDMN has build-up large volume of derivative transactions since 2006
(revolving around selling FX options to its customers) with notional value
reaching US$4.7bn in 3Q08 or 4x the bank’s total equity.
· Recent rupiah weakness and increased volatility has raised BDMN’s
counterparty risk.
· Conditions have been extremely difficult since 3Q08 and could remain
so for the next few quarters so we believe it is prudent to build-in higher
provisioning charges relating to these options and downgrade our 08-09 earnings
by 14-16%.
· BDMN’s valuation looks cheap from historical PBV valuation but we see
limited upside given ROE compresseion to barely cost of capital, while
uncertainty on BDMN’s derivative transactions remains coupled by pot.
BDMN’s valuation looks cheap from historical PBV valuation but we see limited
upside given ROE compresseion to barely cost of capital, while uncertainty on
BDMN’s derivative transactions remains coupled by potential slowdown in bank’s
core business
Dario Amran
--- Pada Sel, 20/1/09, dario kurniawan <darioamran1...@yahoo.co.id> menulis:
Dari: dario kurniawan <darioamran1...@yahoo.co.id>
Topik: [obrolan-bandar] CLSA Downgrade BDMN 2300
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Tanggal: Selasa, 20 Januari, 2009, 10:11 AM
BDMN downgrade by clsa to 2300 problem derivative fx nya ....dalam
2 tahun membengkak jadi 4x lipat..mungkin ini penyebabnya. ..ntar cari info lagi
Dario Amran
--- Pada Sel, 20/1/09, sulistyo_winarto <sulistyo_winarto@ yahoo.co. id>
menulis:
Dari: sulistyo_winarto <sulistyo_winarto@ yahoo.co. id>
Topik: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Investor Call: BUY BDMN
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
Tanggal: Selasa, 20 Januari, 2009, 10:03 AM
Mbah, JT, Senior OB...apa gara2 ESOP ya ?
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "sulistyo_winarto"
<sulistyo_winarto@ ...> wrote:
>
> Mbah, Pak JT, mohon pencerahan.. kenapa hari ini anjlok berat ? Thanks
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "jsx_consultant"
> <jsx-consultant@ > wrote:
> >
> > Investor Call: BUY BDMN
> >
> > - Harga saham BDMN memasuki trading range 2004.
> > - HSBC beli Bank Ekonomi dengan PBV = 4,2
> > - PBV BDMN saat ini cuman = 1,4 atau
> > BDMN lebih murah 66%
> >
> > Grafik: http://www.invest20 00.net/pllbdmn. png
> >
> > Ratio: http://www.investda ta.net/QZ82BAN1. TXT
> >
>
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